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Online Formula 1 Betting

Formula 1 racing is a huge international sport that draws betting action from all over the world. Nearly every online bookmaker offers betting on Formula 1 races, along with futures bets for the World Drivers Championship and World Constructors Championship.

While there are only 5-7 drivers that will win races in most seasons, predicting the one will win the upcoming race can be challenging. A lot of factors come into play, including rule changes, weather, circuit conditions, fuel strategies, and many other things. Also, certain drivers do well as particular circuits, while others do not. Some cars are better on tight circuits with a lot of hard turns, while others do better on circuits with long straights and higher speeds.

Beyond all of that, most people involved in Formula 1 racing will say that the single most important aspect to winning races comes down to tires. Teams are required to use different types of tires during races, and how/when they use them can be critical to winning a race. Also, some drivers are harder on tires than others, giving them a disadvantage at certain circuits. There’s really a lot more to consider than most realize.

For punters who put in the time to analyze each circuit & check driver stats before placing online sports bets, value can be found. Most casual punters bet on favourites regardless if there is value on him or not. So, savvy F1 punters can find situations where another driver might actually have a better chance to win than the favourite.

Betting Tips

An important Formula 1 betting tip is always check circuit stats from previous seasons to see which starting positions are likely to finish on the podium. At some circuits, anyone in P1 – P6 might have a chance. At others, P1 and P2 have dominated for many years. Gran Premio D’Italia (Italian Grand Prix), and the Grand Prix de Monaco are two excellent examples of this. If nobody below P2 has won this race in the last 15 years, why would you bet on the driver in P4?

The ‘sample size’ argument doesn’t translate well in F1 racing. There are legitimate reasons why some circuits greatly favor drivers in P1 or P2, and punters can throw away money if they aren’t betting along with history.

How to Bet on Formula 1 Racing

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 is by choosing the winner of the race. Matchup bets, Top 3, and Top 6 bets are also common. Futures bets can be placed on the World Drivers Championship and World Constructors Championship, and this can be a fun way to follow a single bet all season long.

Betting on F1 Race Winners

As mentioned above, these are the most popular bets for F1 racing. However, most punters fail to do the research required to make consistent profits betting on race winners. The reason is because casual punters bet heavy on favourites, beyond the point of value. This is especially true when one driver is dominating a season.

One trick to getting the best odds on a heavy favourite is to bet early, well before the public drags the odds down. It’s not uncommon to see a heavy favourite listed in the range of 2.00 to 3.50 a week before the race, then 1.50 to 2.00 right before qualifying. This is a huge difference that punters need to take advantage of. If this driver goes on to win the pole, his odds will get even shorter, putting me in a great position. Of course the risk is in the qualifying. If he qualifies in P2, the odds will generally be in the range I have him at. However, if he qualifies in P3 or P4, his odds will be greater, meaning I’m getting less value on him than I would’ve gotten if I had waited until qualifying was done.

Finding opportunities to bet on P3 or P4 is my favourite way to bet on Formula 1. This strategy only works on circuits where P1 and P2 don’t dominate year after year. For example, I would never do this at Monza.

Here’s the strategy: Instead of getting short odds on the driver in P1 after qualifying, I look for a guy in P3 or P4 that has had success at this circuit in the recent past (last 2-3 years). I also make sure his car is setup well for this circuit. This means that on circuits with long straights, I’m looking for a guy who’s shown high speeds throughout the later stages of practice. On tight circuits with a lot of sharp turns, I want a guy who’s known for being ultra-aggressive. If I can find a driver who fits the bill, I’ll usually find his greatest odds 2-4 hours before the race begins, which is just before the big money comes in on my driver. I can typically get odds in the range of 5.00 to 10.00 on a driver who is giving me far more value than drivers in P1 or P2.

Formula 1 Matchup Bets

Matchup bets are wagers where multiple drivers (usually 2-6) are pitted against each other. The punters job is to predict which driver will have the highest finish within his grouping. Since betting on Formual 1 matchups are popular at a lot of betting sites, be sure to compare matchups and odds at several of them.

Matchup Betting Tip: Never bet on a driver in a matchup bet that you are predicting to win the race. For example, if you see a matchup which includes Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button, Mark Webber, and Fernando Alonso…stay away from it. The winner of the race is likely to come from this group anyways, and this matchup bet is only eliminating drivers who are unlikely to win. This matchup will provide lower odds than you can get on your driver to win the race outright, so take that bet instead.

Podium Bets (Top 3 Finishers)

Podium bets are simple wagers where the punters job is to select a driver (or drivers) they expect to finish in the top 3 (on the podium). Whether the driver finishes in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd makes no difference – the payout is always the same.
While punters can find consistent wins with these bets, the odds are generally very short. Some punters like bet on drivers who they think are ‘locks’ to finish on the podium, but I prefer to get better odds on someone in P3-P6 who I think has a realistic shot at the podium. In F1, it only takes a few extra seconds in the pits, a slight mishap with another driver, or a multitude of other mistakes to drop a driver from P2 into P4. Instead, I like to dig into the research more and find a better value. I win less often, but my profits are higher when I do.

Top 6 Bets

Top 6 bets are exactly the same as Top 3 bets, where the punters job is to select a driver that will finish in the top 6 positions. Some Formula 1 online betting sites will offer short odds on the top drivers, while others might not offer them at all. Personally, I like to find drivers in P4-P8 that I can get better odds on. In some races, I’ll bet on two or three drivers, depending on the type of circuit it is (circuits that heavily favor drivers starting high on the grid).

Formula 1 Futures Bets

Almost every online betting site offers Formula 1 futures bets on the World Drivers Championship and World Constructors Championship. The Drivers Champion is the driver who wins the seasonal points race. The Constructors Champion is the team with the highest accumulated points between each of their drivers.

This isn’t always the case, but in most seasons, the constructor of the Drivers Championship car also wins the Constructors Championship. Teams build almost identical cars for both of their drivers, so if one car is good enough to win the Drivers Championship, the other car will be good enough to collect the necessary points for his team to win the Constructors Championship as well.

How to bet on Formula One


F1 Betting strategy

Formula 1 is bigger than ever and more viewers means more punters. It is a correlation the bookmakers have become increasingly aware of and now the average F1 race weekend sees the major firms offer upwards of 150 betting market around its outcome.

Naturally the vast majority of money is wagered on the simple race win markets. It means there is plenty of liquidity, minimising the prospect of your chosen bookmaker refusing your bet due to its size.

Unfortunately such a big consensus of opinion in a marketplace environment means the odds on offer are very much in-line with the probability of the outcome. Rarely is there any value in a win market when it comes to F1.

There are, however, the odd occasions when value can be found. Be quick with your news feeds and you may pick up some valuable information ahead of the bookmaking firms. This is a sport where a change of gearbox results in a five-place demotion on car’s scheduled starting position. That’s a massive handicap which can immediately make a 5/2 shot become an 8/1 poke.

Similarly, the weather forecaster is your friend. Rain or high winds is as significant as a going change from ‘firm’ to ‘heavy’ in horse racing terms. Essentially, however, the most straightforward betting market remains the hardest one to beat.

The more elaborate the market the greater the prospect of finding value. Once again, value is something determined by probability. If the odds of reward are greater than the outcome it is ‘value’.

To identify the probability there is no stronger indicator than form and statistical analysis.

A good starting point is to compile the results from the last ten Grand Prix at every circuit on the current calendar. This may involve data from over 160 races (as some of the tracks are new and others are no longer raced on). There are normally 20 races a season.

This may seem daunting but Wikipedia is an invaluable tool and the stats you collate can be relatively simple. For example, record just these:

  • Race Starters
  • Race Finishers
  • Pole Setter – and finishing position
  • Winner – and starting position
  • Fastest Lap
  • Safety Car – needed or not
  • Winning Margin

These pieces of data alone will give you a very good complexion of what can be expected at each race.

Naturally F1 cars are subject of constant rule changes. In 2005 the cars had 3-litre engines, those became 2.4-litre and latterly the cars are a 1.6-litre hybrids. But when it comes to the likelihood of accident or incident and race winning margins, previous results remain a strong form indicator.

For Example:

  • There has been a Safety Car in ten of the last 12 Monaco Grand Prix.
  • There has been a Safety Car in all seven Singapore Grand Prix.
  • The winning margin at the Hungarian Grand Prix averages out at over 12 seconds
  • Ten of the last 12 winners of the Italian Grand Prix have started on Pole
  • On average there are five non-finishers in the Belgian Grand Prix

All of the above fields can be gambled on: Safety Car appearance, Total Finishers, Winning Margin and Pole-Setter to Win the Race.

Additionally, while compiling the results/data you will see clear trends, such as drivers that excel at a certain type of track or conditions.

Track Types

The beauty of Formula 1 is no two circuits are the same. Form from one race cannot be translated directly into another. The circuits can, however, be pigeonholed and that is one of the golden rules of F1 betting.

Some cars are fast on fast tracks, tracks with long straights and high speeds. Others thrive at ‘squirt and brake’ slower circuits where cornering is key. Without being too technical it is about ‘downforce’, the amount of pressure a car needs to keep it on the circuit.

Fast tracks are known as ‘low-downforce’ tracks, slow ones with lots of cornering are ‘high down-force’ as these need an aerodynamic configuration which forces the car into the road and therein keep it on track while cornering at speed.

Unquestionably Spa (Belgium) and Monza (Italy) are the two fastest circuits and therein of the ‘low-downforce’ ilk. Conversely circuits such as the Hungaroring (Hungary), Singapore and Monaco are ‘high-downforce’.

When it comes to betting I have four pigeonholed tracks as set out below.




Monte Carlo

When assessing a race essentially the only place to look for form indicators is amongst results from similar tracks. It is not just about speed or the lack of it. These categories also have similar demands on tyre-wear, brake-wear and even the number of gear changes needed per-lap.

Thankfully odds compilers can be a little short-sighted and when the Belgian Grand Prix comes around it has been preceded by races at Silverstone and Hungary, vastly different circuits.

In horseracing terms they measure up like Warwick, Fontwell and Haydock racecourses and, as we all know, the form of a convincing victory at one will not necessarily translate to another. This is often missed by the men with satchels and algorithms.

Find a Market

As much as identifying tracks where form can be taken literally helps, this pales when it comes to exploiting markets where odds-compilers have employed traditional horse racing values to a sport which has none of horse racing’s conventions.

Top-Three (podium finish), Top-Six and Top-Ten (points finish) markets are not correctly compiled. A dominant 1/2 favourite, Lewis Hamilton in the current climate, is not 1/12 to finish in the top-six because, if he is not in the top-three he has probably succumbed to accident or mechanical failure.

Another market where bookmaker’s tend to get things dramatically wrong is the prices offered about a car completing the race distance or ‘to be classified’ as a finisher.

Whilst the likes of the Manor/Marussia team invariably find themselves lapped five times during the course of a race this lack of competitive pace should not be confused with reliability.

Their car is massively reliable and, as it is so uncompetitive, it is rarely involved in a racing incident. Nevertheless firms still offer handsome odds about their cars not completing specific races. The lack of speed should never be confused with a lack of reliability.

The Fastest Don’t always go Fastest

Possibly the finest market of the lot is the ‘Fastest Lap’ listing which habitually features the most likely race winners towards the head of it. Yes, common sense dictates the fastest car and driver combination is the most likely race winner and because they are fastest they are the most likely to post the fastest lap.

Not so. Modern day F1 is not about setting off into the distance creating an ever-increasing advantage by virtue of driving a superior car.

To the contrary, races are now ‘managed’ with leaders setting targeted lap times dictated by their pit-wall strategists who are happy to see their drivers maintain a controllable advantage and not unduly punish their engines in the futile exercise which is to win by a wide-margin or set a fastest lap. There is no additional prizes for setting a fastest lap and, until there is, no team will deliberately set out to claim one.

Fastest laps are generally set when the planets line-up and that involves the following factors:

New Tyres:

So often the last competitive car to stop for fresh tyres sets the fastest lap. Fresh rubber is fast rubber.

Clear Racetrack:

Being stuck behind a slower car is not a recipe for setting a fastest lap. A clear track with no opposition in your driver’s pathway is.

Late Stages:

As the cars burn their fuel they become lighter, lighter cars are faster cars. Therein fastest laps are invariably set in the late stages of the races – which generally last for 90 minutes.


The ultimate fastest lap setter will be racing flat-out, as opposed to those leading or those maintaining a ‘safe position’. Therein a late-stopping car with the benefit of new fast tyres who has the prospect of chasing down rivals for all-important point-scoring positions (the top-10 cars earn World Championship points) is destined to claim the accolade.

The above criteria saw Daniel Ricciardo set the fastest lap in Monte Carlo 2015 at odds of 100/1 and Sergio Perez at 150/1 at the same venue in 2012. Just two treble-digit victors in a market which consistently churns out big-priced winners and frequently neglects short-priced contenders.


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