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Trading the in-play Next Goal Market

This is a trend sports trading strategy. This strategy entails having to lay every single selection in the Next Goal Market and in the process, creates an overround of over 100% in order to secure a lock-in profit like the bookmakers. The success of this trading strategy depends on a few conditions:

  • volatile market
  • teams with high defence ability
  • analysis of the match in play

A volatile next goal market occurs during the last 10-15 minutes of the match where it is a statistical fact that goals are usually scored. The psychology behind is that teams are usually worn out after a long game and tends to let down their guard during the last interval. Teams with high defence ability are chosen as you do not want any upset of the match after a goal is scored. This will be explained later.

 

To begin, let us examine the typical components of the Next Goal Market:

 

Back Odds
Lay Odds
Team A Scores First
4.3
4.5
Team B Scores First
4.1
4.6
No goals
1.8
1.88

 

First it is useful to imagine what would happen in the simple case of no goals throughout the match. The odds on “No goals” would decrease with time, since it is now less likely for the match to contain any goals as time remaining is shorter. Therefore, the outcome “No goals” become more likely, and thus its odds fall. Check the article on Probability Applied to Odds in the Statistics section for a clearer picture. Consequently, the odds on both “Team A scores first” and “Team B scores first” rise. (Why?)

 

The strategy is to lay both Team A and Team B to score first and then moments later lay the No goals to secure a lock-in profit. This is a Lay All sports trading strategy and it would be better to appreciate this strategy with a technical example.

 

At the 75th minute:

 

Back Odds
Lay Odds
Team A Scores First
4.3
4.5
Team B Scores First
4.1
4.6
No goals
1.8
1.88

 

If we calculate the total lay probabilities, it would be 1 / 4.5 + 1 / 4.6 + 1 / 1.88 = 97.1% which means that there is no opportunity to lay all the outcomes and make a profit. But if there is around a 2.9% move in the lay odds, it would be enough to create a profitable trade! As the first step, we would want to lay the weaker team which arbitrarily we take it to be Team B. Laying the weaker team is logical for the weaker team has a lower chance of being able to score next. In the event that the stronger team A scores first, we would make a quick profit although the method fails. So let us proceed to lay Team B scoring first at $10 at lay odds 4.6. We have to work out the liability here which is 4.6 X $10 – $10 = $36. Refer to the article on backing and laying for a clearer explanation.

 

The next step would be to lay the favourite to score first which in this case is Team A. To correctly calculate the stake to lay, we want to lay the favourite in such a way that if the favourite scores first OR the weak team scores first, we would lose the SAME amount. (refer to the article on Backing and Laying Arbitrage)

 

Team A Scores First
Team B Scores First
Team A scores
Team B scores
Lose X*3.5 (lay liability)
Lose $36
Earn $10
Earn X
Loss = X*3.5 – $10
Loss = $36 – X

 

If we solve for X, X = $10.40. So we would lay $10.22 at odds 4.5 for Team A. To check the mathematics, look at the table below:

 

Team A Scores First
Team B Scores First
Team A scores
Team B scores
Lose $35.7
Lose $36
Earn $10
Earn $10.22
Loss = $25.77
Loss = $25.73

 

At this stage, if there is no goal till the end of the match, we would win the lay bet of $10 and the lay bet of $10.22 totaling $22.22. However, what we want to create is a risk free bet independent of the outcome. Suppose at the 85th minute and there is still not a goal scored during the interval. The odds situation may look like this:

 

Back Odds
Lay Odds
Team A Scores First
7
15
Team B Scores First
9
17
No goals
1.2
1.3

 

Notice that the odds for both teams to score have risen dramatically; odds for no goals has fallen dramatically too. Here we have an excellent trading opportunity. We could now lay “No goals” to ensure that no matter what result occurs, we would get the same profit. This can be done by considering the table below.

 

Team A or B Scores
No goals
Loss = $25.77
Profit = $22.22
Earn Y
Loss = Y*0.3
Profit = Y – $25.77
Profit = $22.22 – Y*0.3

 

Solving for Y mathematically, we find that the required stake to lay at odds 1.3 for the no goals outcome is $36.92. Let us confirm the mathematics:

 

Team A or B Scores
No goals
Loss = $25.77
Profit = $22.22
Earn $36.92
Loss = $11.08
Profit = $11.15
Profit = $11.14

 

Thus, no matter what happens now, a lock in profit of $11.15 approximately is yours. The sports trader need not be concerned about the mathematics involved as the whole process can be automated with calculators.

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