To be successful in the long term with sports betting To be alone is not enough to rely solely on your gut feeling. Finally, there are various factors that affect the course and thus ultimately the outcome of the encounter, and which bookmakers also take into account when designing their odds. Average values help to make statements about the probability of certain game results. But how reliable are these statements, and which numbers or statistics are really suitable to improve your own balance sheet in sports betting? For this guide, we have dealt intensively with the average values for sports betting and show how you can use various statistics in a meaningful way. This is how we want to help you to have more success when betting.
Submit a promising betting step by step
Including all the available information in your betting decisions increases the chance that your bets will make a profit. Therefore, use all statistics that are either offered by the bookmaker itself or on other websites. Regardless of the basis on which you place your tip, you should always evaluate the available data first. After all, all sports betting strategies are based on estimating the probabilities for certain results as precisely as possible, and the results of past games can provide an important clue.
In addition to the average values and other statistics, you should also include further information in your decision. With a good football betting strategy, this includes, among other things, knowing how the team has prepared for the match, whether there are banned or injured players and whether it is a particularly important game. For example, players will have a different motivation, but also more nervousness when playing for ascent or against an impending descent. The result could also look different.
It can often make sense to analyze statistics separately for home or away games. At home, not only is the support from the fans greater, the players also have other advantages in that they know their stadium inside out and are not already burdened by a possibly long journey. The weather is also a factor that can be taken into account when typing. Bad weather, wind and a very wet lawn can make the game more dependent on chance. In this case, it may be worth the tip on the outsider, since the favorite does not have everything under control as badly as it would normally.
After you have determined the probabilities for the respective betting options based on all available information, you must now compare them with the odds offered. After all, profit-oriented betting is not about winning as many of your bets as possible, but you want to win as much money as possible with the tips you have given. This can be illustrated by the following example:
After extensive research, you assume that the outsider has a 25% chance of winning. A corresponding bet would therefore result in one of four cases being paid out. The bookmaker now offers you a odds of 4.5 for betting on the outsider. If you bet 100 euros four times on the outsider, you will lose three bets on average, but you will win 450 euros on the remaining bet, making a total profit of 50 euros. So the tip has a positive expected value and is therefore recommended.
- Gather all information about past games
- Take current information such as shape, injuries and coach change into account
- Estimate probability for different potential game outcomes
- Consider odds and set them in relation to the assumed probability
- Submit a tip and take bankroll management into account
Personal analysis can help you bet more successfully
In the age of the Internet, you can quickly access numerous average values and further statistics with just a few clicks of the mouse. Of course, you can now simply place your sports betting using these numbers. But keep in mind that bookmakers also know these values and work with them. Therefore, you will probably not be able to make a profit in the long term if you do not use any further information.
Especially when it comes to average values, it is worth taking a closer look at the distribution of the individual values. For example, if there are many outliers upwards, the average is high, but in most games the number of goals is below this value. We noticed this, among other things, at the games of FC Bayern Munich. In one game or another, Bayern offer their fans true goal festivals, but in most other games, however, no more goals are scored than we are used to in games from other clubs. But not only the betting customers, but also many bookmakers set the number of goals to be expected too high due to the high average values.
Even in Bundesliga games, the average values can provide you with a clue, but they do not replace a thorough, independent analysis. On average, 2.77 goals are scored in each Bundesliga game. However, due to an uneven distribution of these goals, only approx. 51% of the “over 2.5” bets are successful. This value offers a good orientation. By knowing before the game in question whether a more offensive or defensive game is to be expected, how good the goalkeeper is in shape and whether other factors influence the result, you can make a good assessment for the individual match.
Average values using the example of the World Cup
The Football World Cup provides good examples of how averages can change over time and why it is important to choose the right time period if you want to include these values in your own sports betting decisions. Especially at a World Cup, which only takes place every four years and where the performance of the individual teams is influenced by numerous factors, it is important to correctly evaluate statistics. We would like to illustrate this again with the help of an example:
Looking at the number of goals scored in the respective World Cup final in regular time, the average of all World Cups from 1930 to today is 3.21. At first glance, you would think that it is promising to bet on over 2.5 goals with an over / under bet. With such a tip you would have only been twice successful at the last 8 World Cups: in 1998, when France defeated Brazil 3: 0, and at the last World Cup in 2018, where it was also the French team, a 4: 2 victory against Croatia succeeded. You would have lost the remaining 6 bets. This is because the high-scoring games of the early years still have a strong impact on the average today. The 1958 final, in which Brazil won 5-2 against Sweden, still has a strong influence on statistics to this day, even though the conditions are now completely different. The final of the 2018 World Cup also drives the average up, although the previous World Championships indicate a different trend.
On the other hand, of course, bookmakers also know that fewer goals are to be expected in a World Cup final these days. The odds are adjusted accordingly, which can make it worthwhile to tap an “over” again. In 2018 there was also the background information that France has a rather offensive style of play, which ultimately meant that the goal-scoring result was not a huge surprise.
The examples above clearly show that the average value should never be viewed in isolation. In addition, you should always pay attention to whether all results are relatively close to the average or whether there are outliers up or down that can lead to incorrect assumptions.
Bet against the crowd and secure top odds
As we have already shown, it is always important to correctly interpret the averages. We advise all ambitious betting customers to deal intensively with the statistics relevant to the respective encounter before they give their tip. However, this does not mean that it makes sense in all circumstances to rely on the statistically most likely result. Finally, bookmakers also use these statistics to generate their odds, which means for you as a customer that if you bet on a comparatively probable result, you will receive relatively little money if successful. If you bet on an outsider or an apparently unlikely outcome of the game, you will of course get a significantly higher profit if your tip turns out to be correct.
Another reason for the good outsider odds is the betting behavior of the other users. Especially when there are clear favorites, many betting customers are of course convinced of the victory of these favorites. In any case, the bookmaker wants to make a profit, regardless of how the encounter actually turns out. Therefore, it can happen that a reputable betting site shifts the odds against the previously calculated probabilities in order not to have to pay out more money in a favorite win than he won by betting on the draw and the outsider. The quota for the favorite is subsequently reduced. In order to maintain the quota level, the quotas on the other exits are increased.
Outsider bets can be very frustrating because they are won much less often than a tip on the favorites, but if you have the necessary frustration tolerance, it is worthwhile to look out for such bets with good odds. However, keep in mind that the variance is greater with such a football strategy, which is why only a small part of the total balance should be invested in a single outsider bet. Fortunately, that is enough, because even with small bets, good odds are possible thanks to the high odds.
How to get background information about an encounter
In some cases you can find statistics and further information about the games from the online bookmaker. These provide the best sports betting sites within the scope of their service offering in order to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Use this information extensively because it is often worth cash! But even if there is no comprehensive statistics section on your bookmaker’s website, you don’t have to do without averages and other significant numbers. View and read articles about the upcoming encounter in the media. Above all, you should use the Internet, where you can find almost any number that could be relevant to your betting decision.
If you use averages to make decisions, you should always consider in advance whether a large number of encounters should be used to calculate the average or whether it might be better to focus on a smaller, but much more precise one Restrict selection. For example, when assessing the performance of a football team, it can make a difference whether you consider all games or only look at home games. It is also questionable whether the results of the last 5 years play a role if the team now starts with a new coach and numerous new players.
In addition to the detailed statistics, a look at the immediately preceding games should not be neglected. If, for example, a team has asserted itself confidently in the preliminary round of a tournament, this can indicate a good form. On the other hand, there may also be uncertainty from a psychological point of view if things didn’t go well for a team in previous games.
Avoid emotional betting behavior
Sports betting can create strong emotions. Of course we are happy about a win, especially if it was a tip on the outsider and the odds were accordingly high. On the other hand, whoever loses a bet is understandably frustrated. If there is a real losing streak and several bets are lost in succession, the frustration is of course particularly high.
Gushing emotions after the end of the game are one thing, emotions before or when placing bets are quite another. Here we should never be guided by our feelings, but should only trust the facts. A profit-oriented sports betting participant is not about always betting on his favorite team, but primarily wants to make a profit with his bets. To do this, he compares quotas, analyzes statistics and meticulously evaluates all the information available to him. Since after the bet is before the bet, he doesn’t get particularly emotional after a bet has been lost or won because he thinks primarily in the long term. Therefore, you should always ask yourself when looking at
Bet Predictions Conclusion
There are numerous sports betting strategies, but with almost all of them you can use the average values to assess the bets offered. If you are trading for profit, you should only place bets where you see a positive expectation. This can be both favorite bets with a particularly good chance of winning, as well as bets on the outsider, where you get a particularly good odds.
If you only use the average values alone, this can lead to incorrect assumptions due to an uneven distribution. Therefore, you should also consider other statistics and information. The more you know about an encounter, the better you can estimate the chances of possible outcomes. Over time, you will gain experience and make better and better decisions. Try it out at your leisure and become a betting pro yourself, step by step!