Betting against the trend

Betting against the trend

If you open your eyes to sports betting, you will quickly find that the safest bets are usually those that are set with the trend. In other words, if a team is really stupid, the coach is about to be released and all previous away games have actually been lost, then hardly anyone will bet on a victory for this team in the next game abroad – the money tends to go to the favorites bet . However, there are cases where betting makes the most sense when bidding against the tide. We looked at this question, looked at examples and put together some clues that often make sense instead of tapping the outsider instead of the favorites.

Examples also in real life

Anyone familiar with probability calculation knows that even the most probable results do not necessarily have to occur. This principle applies not only in real life, but also in sports betting. After all, if my bus is delayed three times in a row, it doesn’t mean that it has to be late on the fourth day too. The likelihood of being late is relatively high, but it is quite possible that it will arrive on time. It’s the same with sports: Just because a team has lost three times in a row, it doesn’t have to happen a fourth time. Series are primarily there to be broken. But above all: whoever decides to do so, at the best sports betting site. To bet against the trend must first deal with the topic thoroughly. 

What reasons may there be that a series breaks?

What brings us back to the example with the bus: Of course we have to ask ourselves why the bus is late:

  • There was a construction site for three days, so the bus had to wait longer there than usual – but on the fourth day, this construction site is no longer there
  • The bus driver overslept three times in a row – because he has now got into trouble, he certainly won’t sleep through a fourth time
  • A new bus driver had to get used to the peculiarities of the route – after three days he finally got it

As banal as the examples may be, they can be easily transferred to sports, such as football:

  • The team lost three times in a row because the main defender was injured – in the fourth game he is fully back
  • Three losses in a row because the team played unfocused – the club boss really hit the table, the fourth time everything is different
  • The team obviously can’t get along with the coach – he is released before the fourth game

So we already have a number of reasons why betting against the trend can make sense. All of these reasons require one thing: we have to deal intensively with the upcoming sporting event.

Example FC Bayern Munich 2016/17

FC Bayern Munich started the 2016/17 season with some very good appearances and canvases. Then, on the fifth match day, the team was in Hamburg, a team that had to deal with the issue of relegation at a very early stage. Most experts predicted a win for Munich, and a solid one. Handicap bets on an away win with -2 or on a result with over 3.5 goals were not uncommon. And what happened? Bayern won “only” and with great effort 1-0. The next three games could not be won by the German record champions:

  • Atlético Madrid 1-0 Bayern Munich
  • FC Bayern Munich – <1. FC Cologne 1: 1
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 Bayern Munich

At the latest after the 1-1 draw against Cologne it became clear that the Bavarians were in a small crisis. For the game in Frankfurt, the online betting sites were already a bit more careful, but everyone saw Bavaria as the big favorite. If you bet against the current with specialist knowledge and a little willingness to take risks, you could ultimately look forward to a huge profit – for example with the Double Chance 1 / x.

How will it go on?

Of course, the example just shown could have backfired, which is why professional bettors certainly do not bet large sums in such a game, but only little of their budget. But they are rewarded with great quotas for their commitment. What about the next Bayern game? Well, it depends on several factors. Certainly a lot will be changed before the next game, so that again against the trend would make little sense. We only know the details when the game is over.

The different types of bets

We also have to differentiate the reasons why someone is betting against the trend:

  • Either out of love for the club / athlete you are betting on – a real fan will make emotional decisions and never or rarely rationally
  • Knowing that something will change this time – due to various factors and completely without emotions

A real HSV fan would probably never bet against his team in a game between HSV and FC Bayern Munich – he would rather not bet this time. A betting pro sees things differently. If it is worthwhile, then the HSV is sometimes used – if there was a change of coach and the team is with its back to the wall, for example.

Betting against the trend can be worthwhile

Anyone who decides to bet against the current should be aware that the probability of failure is very high. So only small amounts should be bet and above all never above the existing budget. Such decisions should never be made on the gut, but should always be rationally justified.

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