It’s almost sad – after 14 years with Angie as head of government, the speculations that have blossomed into the annual tradition of her successor may soon come to an end. A Merkel resignation is no longer expected, but an orderly transfer of the baton.
On a given occasion, we naturally ask ourselves the question with particular enthusiasm:
“Who will be the new Federal Chancellor?” It is felt that more and more betting sites are making bets on Merkel’s successor every day.
Although the next Bundestag election is scheduled for October 2021 and is therefore still a long way off, the issue of chancellorship is increasingly coming into focus in times of crisis. It could therefore be all the more important for the major parties to commit to their respective chancellor candidates as soon as possible. As the balance of power has shifted in recent weeks, this is particularly difficult for the Union.
Theoretically, the Federal President is legally free to propose a candidate for the Chancellery in the first ballot, who must then obtain an absolute majority in the Bundestag. Historically, however, the Federal President has always proposed to the Chancellor candidates in the majority-leading coalition.
Despite a few narrow exceptions, the first ballot was always sufficient. So if you want to take the opportunity to play interesting Federal Chancellor betting odds before the major parties have sent their candidates into the race by the end of the year, you should take a look at the offerings of online bookmakers.
Betting on the question “Who will be the next Federal Chancellor?” Is already possible there for individual candidates using quotas.
The Union as the clear favorite of the Chancellor
The Union’s candidate is undoubtedly the big favorite for the chancellor position. Current surveys indicate that the CDU / CSU have by far the best chances of getting the most votes in autumn 2021. However, it is uncertain who will receive the honor after Merkel to be allowed to move into the election campaign as a successor candidate.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was originally a clear favorite when she climbed the party leadership in a three-way fight with Spahn and Friedrich Merz. Many decisions of the – according to critics – recent Angela Merkel edition in the following months brought AKK more and more into criticism, so that due to falling popularity values for the protection of the Union, she announced that she would not go into the election campaign as Merkel’s successor in 2021.
Merz or Laschet as the next Chancellor?
Merz, Laschet and Jens Spahn were the three gentlemen who threw their hats in the ring to determine the supposedly final new candidate for Chancellor of the Union. Spahn withdrew for Laschet a little later. The conceivable duel did not last long, because then the reigning crisis began to move towards Germany.
Söder or Chancellor as potential Chancellor?
One man was particularly convincing with his straightforward measures in the crisis: CSU boss Söder. The popularity ranking of the Bavarian felt soared hourly, so Söder quickly came into focus as the next Federal Chancellor. Jens Spahn has also more or less involuntarily pushed himself back into the spotlight.
There are almost no swipes at the moment, as politicians of one party and, of course, the entire country demonstrate unity in the current phase.
Merkel successor bets – Alliance 90 / The Greens
A resignation from Merkel is off the table, but the search for a successor has not been completed. It is conceivable that a completely different party will provide the next chancellor. The green wave of the past year has not left the bookmakers without a trace. As mentioned at the beginning, betting providers consider it practically impossible that the Union will not have the most votes in the next Bundestag election.
Nevertheless, not so long ago it would have been unthinkable that the answer to the question “Who will be the next Federal Chancellor?” According to the bookmakers’ prognosis would be a second candidate for the Greens .
Become a chancellor as a dream team
Although the Greens, in contrast to the CDU / CSU, have a double party leadership, the search for the potential candidate for Chancellor is much easier here – even if a choice has to be made between the two chairmen Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck .
The only catch: At the moment, the green party leadership does not like to hear exactly this question about the prospective chancellor candidate. The leaders of the Greens are also still concerned about the coalition in which one wants to rule if the election succeeds.
“If the polls continue to exist, I am in favor of a clear candidacy as chancellor and against a double leadership in the next federal election.”Ludwig Hartmann, Group Chairman
Supposedly, you want to avoid speculation and instead focus on content. After all, shifting personnel debates into the background in favor of political consistency has always been the strength of the Greens.
However, the closer the next Bundestag election or even an early election comes, the clearer it will become that the questions about the coalition plans and the final candidate for chancellor can no longer be avoided.
After all, this issue is no longer completely ignored by the public. Finally, Habeck aptly referred to the environmental party as a “quasi-ruling party on hold”.
Although the two chairpersons Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock are basically equally eligible for the upcoming chancellor candidacy, there are currently some signals that suggest a tendency towards Habeck .
Robert Habeck, the Chancellor’s favorite of the Greens
On the one hand, Robert Habeck is simply the much better known candidate, who, as a rhetorically skilful philosopher, could find it easier to mobilize voters effectively. On the other hand, the 50-year-old writer achieved excellent survey results.
If German voters could elect their Federal Chancellor directly, Robert Habeck would become the new Federal Chancellor after Merkel by a considerable margin. Betting on the Green Leader would therefore be particularly interesting with the corresponding offer – but only if the Greens use their upswing with maximum efficiency and actually overtake the historically strong CDU / CSU.
In the context of a new election within the next few months, this would be an extremely difficult undertaking despite the current hype. With regard to potential bets on the next chancellor and successor to Merkel, the current odds of 5.00 that the Greens will get the most votes at least in 2021 are worth a second look.
Even though it is unlikely, it is not entirely out of the question that the environmental political party will really run for election with a dual leadership. However, this fact only has concrete relevance when the bookmakers again have more specific Chancellor bets in their repertoire.
New Chancellor from the SPD?
Let us assume that the result of the next federal election has already been determined. And lo and behold, the stars are cheap – Kanye West is US President, Rezo is CDU Chairman and Fortuna, the goddess of luck, has also made the impossible possible with her last strength: the SPD wins the most votes.
In such a case, the following question would be asked of the Social Democratic party: Who will become the new Chancellor after Merkel? According to the current status, even the members of the SPD themselves would be too insecure to bet on the answer to this question.
Contrary to the currently prevailing media image of the SPD, which portrays the party as erratic and spineless, one could almost think that the Social Democrats had followed a rock-solid concept over the past decade.
Strictly slipping into a political identity crisis during the Chancellor’s term in office of SPD icon Gerhard Schröder and keeping it rigorously alive to this day is strictly speaking not an easy undertaking.
In order to prepare for the next Bundestag election or even potential new elections, the determined undecided party has once again found the perfect solution: a double head is needed – number of participants: unlimited! The motto is the breadth of content at the top of the party.
The pubescent old party
Admittedly, the situation of the SPD is not yet as hopeless as in our exaggerated example. Nevertheless, the current course of the Social Democrats shows in a fascinating way that the problem and the solution of their political guideline can hardly be distinguished from one another and flow smoothly into one another.
On the one hand, a dual leadership is supposed to remedy the situation within the party differences and ultimately bring the SPD back on a clear course. On the other hand, the mere plan of a dual leadership confirms once again that the process of tedious identity establishment that has been going on for years is far from over.
You can’t really blame the SPD after Andrea Nahles resigned as party leader due to the disastrous European election results in June 2019. Despite all the black painting, ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is still trying to strengthen his party’s back with paternal toughness.
The Chancellery in front of Gerhard Schröder in the back
Schröder exhorts the Social Democrats never to give up their right to be chancellor. However, the 75-year-old does not think much of the plan for a dual leadership. Although the dual leadership concept has not yet proven to be effective historically, one could at least mention the upswing of the Greens as an argument for this path.
“I think this is an attempt to copy something that other parties have not always seen as a success. You have to think about your own strengths. I don’t like this lengthy form of leadership. ”Gerhard Schröder
With Baerbock and Habeck as the chairperson, they finally have a similar concept – apparently with success. However, it only becomes clear when the candidate for chancellor is selected that the path is actually effective. Then, at the latest, it is time to commit to a candidate again.
With the SPD, this is obviously going to be a particularly lengthy process. Before the final introduction of a double leadership in December through an election at the party conference, 15 candidates will campaign for votes by October 12.
A single applicant and seven duos vie for the favor of the party members to assert themselves in the elaborate leadership. But who will be the new Chancellor and successor to Merkel? Gerhard Schröder would probably personally certify that the odds for betting on an SPD candidate, even at currently 26.00, are too low for a profitable tip.
Alice Weidel is not a candidate for the Chancellery
Given last year’s political developments, particularly risk-loving betting fans may feel inclined to try their luck with a daring risk tip on the AfD.
In the 2019 European elections, the AfD increased by almost four percentage points to a vote share of eleven percent, leaving the left and the FDP far behind. In the course of the state elections in Brandenburg and Saxony, another bang followed.
The “Alternative for Germany” climbed in Brandenburg with an increase in votes of 11.3 percentage points to 23.5 percent. In Saxony, the controversial party won more than twice the vote compared to the state election five years ago and celebrated a result of a whopping 27.5 percent.
Overestimated or underestimated?
In percentage terms, current survey values in relation to a hypothetical result of an early Bundestag election also do not provide a bad picture for the AfD. In the latest RTL / n-tv trend barometer, the right-wing populist party has again reached the 14 percent mark for the first time since December 2018.
The SPD is just ahead of it with 15 percent, while the Union is at the top with 27 percent and is persecuted by the Greens, which won 22 percent of the vote. However, those risk-loving betting fans we mentioned at the beginning of this section should take a look at the absolute numbers.
After all, the gap between the political east and west of Germany has been a subject of increasing media interest for at least since the state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg. In total, the AfD won around 2.3 million votes in the 2017 federal election in Hesse, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Bremen and Saxony.
Meanwhile, the Forsa polling institute has reported a decline in the federal states that have voted since the last election to the Bundestag. Despite the positive result for the AfD in the two federal states of Brandenburg and Saxony , only a total of 1.9 million votes are left in the five countries mentioned.
SPD vs. AfD – no more duel at eye level?
The last state elections have shown that the AfD is still a serious political force with room for improvement. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that the party founded in 2013 is struggling with the gradually declining political relevance of the refugee crisis.
In the case of a short-term election, we see the AfD as having no chance of winning most votes like the SPD. However, the starting situation could change by the regular federal election in 2021. Regarding the question “Who will be the next Chancellor?” The odds signal a similar opinion of the bookmakers.
However, the odds have turned significantly in direct comparison. The AfD once had odds of 1.72 to more votes in autumn 2021 in a duel with the SPD. However, changed poll values led to a clear slump, so that the SPD with odds 1.30 (as of April 8, 2020) is clearly ahead.
Key Facts – Next Chancellor Betting
- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has lost the backing of the Union
- SPD still without clear candidates for chancellor
- Söder is currently the most popular candidate for chancellor
However, instead of worrying about this, we can confidently conclude that in view of the betting odds on the next Chancellor after Merkel, neither bets on the SPD nor on the AfD are worthwhile.