Convert match result odds to Asian handicap odds
Throughout Europe Match result is by far the most dominant football betting market, and it seems it should be the obvious choice for the rest of the world. Surprisingly this isn’t the case. Globally the biggest bet type in terms of turnover is the Asian Handicap market.
Although Asian Handicap betting it relatively new to European punters and a pretty confusing concept, many of you reading this article will have already bet on one of the verities of Asian handicap without knowing it. This is because we give it a different name. Draw no Bet (DNB) is an Asian Handicap, in which the handicap line is set as 0:0.
How to convert match result to Asian Handicaps
The maths needed to convert from match result to Asian Handicap is pretty easy stuff, the only problem is trying to remember the formulas because each of the different handicap lines involves a different calculation. It is far better to either use our calculator or to add the formulas to an excel spreadsheet.
I will show you how to convert a couple of the lines and just give to the maths for the rest; and there is no better place to start than the 0:0 Asian line. This is because it will also show you how to convert 1×2 to draw no bet.
Let’s say the three result for a football match are represented by the following letters, H, D, A. These obviously stand for home win, a draw and an away win. For our Asian Handicap equivalents we will have h and a.
To calculate 0:0 you must simply eliminate the draw from the match result, to do this you do the following
h = (1-1/D)xH
a = (1-1/D)xA
Taking an upcoming game on bet365 we can put this formula into action in order to demonstrate if it is better to back the Asian Handicap odds or the match result odds.
Now plugging these numbers into the formulas above we get
Aston Villa = (1-1/3.1) x 2.62 = 1.77
West Brom = (1-1/3.1) x 3.1 = 2.1
This clearly shows that even within the same bookie it can be beneficial to bet Asian Handicap over match result. So imagine the extra value you can find by doing this in combination with an odds comparison site. Here we see that if we were looking to bet Aston Villa it would be better to take the Asian price over match result. But if we wanted to back West Brom it wouldn’t matter which of the markets we punted on, as they both offer the same value.
One more example; this time with for the Asian line of 0.5. This line is by far the best for demonstrates the reason punters such get to know Asian Handicap betting. As you will often see the exact same bet with the same company giving different odds. Betting on a team at -0.5 is the same thing as betting on them to win the game in the match result market. But as the screen shot below shows this isn’t what bookies offer. You can see in the West Ham v Sunderland game that West Ham are 1.90 in the match result market and 2.025 in the Asian Handicap market; even though it is the same bet.
So the maths for the team with -0.5 is pretty obvious. For the team with +0.5 handicap (which can be compared to the matches double chance market, as it’s one section of that bet. Showing again that although we may find Asian Handicaps a weird bet type we have been placing bets already that are the same thing) you need to add the implied probability of both the draw and the +0.5 team then divide by 1. In this example the away team
+0.5 AH = 1/((1/d)+(1/a)) = 1/((1/4)+(1/3.4)) = 1.83
Meaning in this game you’d be getting better value backing either of the Asian Handicaps.
Unfortunately converting from Asian Handicap to Match result isn’t as easy and you will need the help of excel or some other software to achieve this. Luckily we have one such spreadsheet and if it’s something that interests you simply give us a shout out on one of the social media platforms and grab yourself the download.
What is Asian handicap betting?
An Asian handicap, is just like any other form of handicap in betting. The practice of assigning an advantage to the least likely winner of an event. As this is a football bet, this advantage is in the form of goals. Unlike the traditional handicap betting we are accustomed to, Asian Handicap bets also eliminate the draw price, making this a two-way bet on either home team or away team to win.
The purpose of this bet is to try and even that game out and assign a handicap that brings the odd as close to 50/50 as possible. There are three different types of handicap, a full-ball, half-ball and quarter-ball, and as each have a different pay-out structure, this leads to confusion amongst punters new to this bet type.
So how does the betting returns work? For full-ball games there is the possibility it can end in a draw, and as this isn’t one of the bet options, when it happens your stake is returned – called a push. For example if the Asian Handicap is -1 and that team wins by one goal; all money will be returned.
Half ball’s on the other hand can never end in a draw, as no team can score half a goal to even the score out. So as long as the team you back beats the handicap you’ll have a winner; conversely if they don’t beat it you’ll lose.
Quarter balls is the trickiest of the three, this bet is essentially two different bets, one on a full-ball handicap and one on a half ball. So you treat you pay-out as such, think of it as half your stake going on each of the lines (0.25 would be half stake on 0 and half stake on 0.5).