Does Donald Trump lose the US election because of Corona?
A few weeks ago, Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 US presidential election was considered virtually impossible. Economic data, survey values and the forecasts of the betting sites all went in the same direction, the re-election opportunities were very large.
But the corona crisis has changed the starting point drastically and many betting sites are significantly less confident about their Trump reelection in their betting odds than a few weeks more. The main reason for this is Trump’s action in the corona pandemic and the slump in the US economy.
Below, we look at the question of how likely Trump is to lose the US election , what are the possible reasons for it, and what chances Joe Biden has in the election of the US president.
The betting sites have actually made a U-turn. If it looked a month ago after a completely safe reelection of Trump, betting odds below 2.00 with the best bookmakers in the test show that the incumbent is still in pole position, but Joe Biden follows closely behind. There has been a lot of tension in betting on the next US election.
Does Donald Trump lose the US election?
In early February, a Gallup poll gave Donald Trump an approval rating of 49 percent, the highest since he took office in 2016. But meanwhile, there has been strong criticism of the US President’s course on dealing with the epidemic.
This has also been reflected in the forecasts of the betting sites, who have adjusted their betting odds accordingly for a new Trump victory . Reelection opportunities are by no means as good as they were before the outbreak of the corona pandemic in the United States.
For US presidents, a thriving economy is the primary argument for re-election. “The economy, stupid,” a saying by James Carville, strategist for Bill Clinton’s successful presidential campaign in 1992, has now become a catchphrase and underlines that US voters place a well-run economy above other things like foreign policy. As a result, Trump will face major problems in the coming weeks, especially as the US is facing a deep recession.
Since mid-March, 26.5 million Americans have been applying for unemployment benefits , and due to restrictions on public life, many companies’ sales have plummeted.
Two reasons for Trump’s defeat:
- US stock market plummets: The corona pandemic sent Wall Street down. The Dow Jones lost nearly 13 percent on March 16, marking the second-largest drop in US history.
- Unemployment Rise: In the United States, due to the limitations of public life due to the corona virus, a dramatic increase in unemployment (a rate of at least 16%, note) is expected in the next few weeks.
The crisis management of the US president causes severe criticism. First of all, Trump is said to have hesitated for a long time due to electoral tactics to take measures against the spread of the corona virus, in order to then reinforce opponents of the exit restrictions . Of course, only in states whose governors come from the democratic party.
The United States is the most affected country in the world: on the last Sunday in April, the CDC disease control agency in Atlanta reported 928,619 coronavirus infections for the United States . The number of deaths reached almost 52,500.
Furthermore, Trump once again stunned when he made a bizarre suggestion to inject people to protect against Covid-19 disinfectants . After some had actually accepted this “advice” and had to go to hospital with signs of poisoning, the Republican washed around in the usual way and spoke of a “sarcastic statement” and once again accused the media of spreading fake news.
So far, Donald Trump has survived all adversities without too big dents . Both the trade war with China and the impeachment process brought the real estate tycoon through without injuries. Trump’s re-election was out of the question with betting sites.
Will Joe Biden become the next US president? Betting & betting odds
That has changed in the meantime. Although applies the 73-year-old still in the forecasts of the bookmaker as a favorite on the re-election, but Joe Biden is the incumbent almost on the heels.
The former vice president under Barack Obama had not been the sure challenger of the Democrats for a long time. Only at the beginning of April did Biden finally prevail against his remaining opponent Bernie Sanders.
A week later, Sanders announced his support for the former Obama vice. “We have to make sure that Trump becomes a president with just one term, and we need you in the White House,” said the 78-year-old left-wing politician Biden. The remaining Democratic primaries are only of statistical value.
The next Democratic primary
|May or June||Puerto Rico|
|12th of May||Nebraska|
|2th of June||District of Columbia / Washington DC, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, Indiana, Delaware, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island|
|6th of June||Virgin Islands|
|June 9||Georgia, West Virginia|
|23rd June||New York, Kentucky|
|7th of July||New Jersey|
* planned, may shift due to the corona pandemic
Biden as the US president would no longer be a big surprise, according to bookmakers, because the 77-year-old has a good chance of defeating Trump in the US election and going down in history as the 46th president of the United States. He would only be the eleventh candidate to defeat an incumbent.
An incumbent was last voted out in 1992. George HW Bush was then defeated by his challenger Bill Clinton due to an economic recession.These US presidents failed because of their re-election:
- John Adams (Federalist) 1800
- John Quincy Adams (National Republican) 1828
- Martin Van Buren (Democrat) 1840
- Grover Cleveland (Democrat) 1888
- Benjamin Harrison (Republican) 1892
- William Taft (Republican) 1912
- Herbert Hoover (Republican) 1932
- Gerald Ford (Republican) 1976
- Jimmy Carter (Democrat) 1980
- George HW Bush (Republican) 1992
Which party wins the 2020 US election?
It is quite possible that this story will repeat itself and that a democratic challenger can defeat a ruling republican president in the US election. Bookmakers are extremely optimistic about this and assume that the next president will come from the Democratic camp.
Forecasts are naturally difficult, especially since the economy has slipped into a deep crisis as a result of the corona pandemic. The fact that the party can assert itself with the donkey as a mascot is not only supported by the odds of the betting sites, but also by the fact that the Democrats in the House of Representatives have had the majority since 2018 and were able to expand them last year. Republicans are at the helm in the Senate.