It isn’t too often that one National Hockey League team will be favored
by more than -300 on the money line. It’s even more rare when such a big
favorite losses, but it does happen. In the 2006-07 NHL season there
were 24 occasions when favorites of -300 or more came up on the short
end of the scoreboard. Knowing how to deal with these teams in their
next game can lead to a few more dollars in the hockey bettor’s
When Playing at Home
When a team favored by -300 comes away with a loss, the team can be
counted on to give a little bit extra when their next game is in front
of the home fans. The players would like nothing more than to prove that
their last game was a fluke and what better way to do that than to win
in front of the local supporters?
Of the 24 teams who lost as -300 or higher favorites last year, 13 of
them were playing their next game at home and those teams managed to win
an impressive 11 of those games. Any system that goes 11-2, but more
importantly, makes common sense, is one worth keeping an eye on in the
When Playing on the Road
When our high-priced losing teams take to the road for their next game,
the results are quite different, as these teams went just 3-8, including
a dismal 2-6 when they were made the favorites. There’s no real logical
explaination for such a disparity, but this is a trend that should
begin to correct itself over time.
When looking at situational trends or systems, the two most important requirements are how the method stands up against the test of time, and that it make common sense. Betting against losing favorites when they take to the road might meet the first requirement, but doesn’t fulfill the second. In this case, it’s probably best to pass the game and see how the situation plays itself out over the course of the season.