Home Win Strategy in Football Betting

Football bet types

The most popular sports bets are football bets , but you shouldn’t necessarily bet on your favorite team, if that’s not Bayern Munich. To bet on football successfully, you should use a strategy. A strategy does not guarantee that you will always win, but it can improve your chances. The strategy of betting on a team’s home win is popular. The teams are familiar at home, most teams have more wins at home than abroad.

Which speaks for the home win strategy

There are a few arguments in favor of the home win strategy:

  • Home wins are more likely
  • Risk appears less
  • With combination bets, attractive odds can be achieved

Many football fans bet on home wins because it seems more likely that a team will win at home. Basically, home wins are more common than away wins, many teams play much better at home than away. If you look at the form curves of the last ten games of Bundesliga clubs, you will find that many teams achieve more home wins than away wins. The idea arises that a home win strategy can generate long-term profits if you follow this strategy consistently. Of course, it can always happen that a team loses in the home stadium. If you want to use the home win strategy, you shouldn’t do without an analysis. Take a close look at the shape curve of the home team, but also the away team, to see if the teams are better at home or away. Since a team is more likely to win at home, they react Betting sites on it with the corresponding odds – the odds for the home win are usually lower than for the away win; an exception is a home game of a weaker team that receives an absolute favorite. In this case, however, the weak team is less likely to win at home.

What you should consider with the home win strategy

If you want to find out whether the home win strategy is really worthwhile, you should use statistics as a guide. In the seasons 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12, games from several top leagues were examined:

  • german Bundesliga
  • English Premier League
  • Spanish Primera Division
  • Italian Serie A
  • French Ligue 1

From the averages of some of the best sports betting sites average odds were formed, with a bet of 10 euros being assumed for each game. A total stake of 3,800 euros was made in 380 English Premier League games. The evaluation of these studies yielded interesting results. The bottom line was that the long-term home win strategy was only successful in the English Premier League and the Spanish Primera Division; Betting on the Premier League was particularly successful in the 2009/10 season – during this time, with a stake of 3,800 euros, a net profit of 342 euros was recorded. In relation to the stake, the net profit is pretty small. So the home win strategy is not a permanent recipe for success; there were even losses. In the Premier League, losses were 43 euros in the 2010/11 season and even 194 euros in the 2011/12 season. It is not much different with the Spanish Primera Division, in the 2009/10 season the net profit would have been only 1 euro, in the 2011/12 season it would have been 43 euros net profit. A loss of 10 euros would have been recorded in the 2010/11 season. 

Losses in home win strategy also in other leagues

In the Italian Serie A, the French Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga, the home win strategy did not work in the seasons investigated, with a clear minus in all of these leagues. The minus is particularly strong in the Bundesliga, with a loss of 669 euros in all three seasons. Only the 2010/11 season brought a net profit of 11 euros. Losses were also recorded for Italian Serie A and French Ligue 1 over all three seasons, for Italian Serie A the losses were 414 euros, for French Ligue 1 it was 616 euros.

Losses can be expected

A home win strategy does not always pay off, as the results of the studies show. Looking at all the leagues and seasons examined, the total loss is 1,560 euros, which means that the profit margin is only a meager 2.85 percent. In contrast, the away win strategy is also not recommended, because here too, studies were carried out on the seasons and leagues mentioned. The results were even worse than with the home win strategy. Losses were particularly evident in the Spanish Primera Division, while in Bundesliga betting in the period 2010/11 there was even a net profit of 386 euros. Overall, the loss margin for the away strategy was 10.28 percent. It is not fundamentally wrong to use the home win strategy, but you should not forego a thorough analysis beforehand.

Home win strategy cannot do without analysis

There is no reason not to use the home win strategy, but you should analyze the matches carefully. For example, if 1. FC Köln receives Borussia Dortmund at home, it is quite likely that 1. FC Köln will lose. On the other hand, it looks very different when VfL Wolfsburg receives 1. FSV Mainz 05 at home, here the probability is high that Wolfsburg will win. If you take a closer look at the statistics for the first half of the Bundesliga season, you will find that some teams wait quite a long time after the start of the new season before finally achieving a home win. If you want to use the home win strategy, then this only makes sense for

  • Home games of teams from the top half of the table
  • Play where a favorite receives an outsider at home
  • Play in which two teams of approximately equal strength from the middle of the table compete against each other

In addition to teams that are particularly successful at home, there are also teams that shine particularly well abroad. You should take a closer look at this before you place your bet.

The home win strategy – no guarantee of success

A home win strategy may seem tempting, but as the top league research over several seasons has shown, this strategy doesn’t always work. There is no point in consistently following the home win strategy, as this can lead to losses. If you want to use the home win strategy, you should only focus on one or two leagues, so as not to get bogged down. You should not do without a thorough analysis, because the strategy is only worthwhile if teams are statistically more successful at home than for long periods.

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