There are many occasions when you fancy a strong favourite to win a match but the odds on offer are far too low.
Here we will look at some simple strategies to help boost your returns should the favourite win.
In this example I am going to look at the Serie A match between Juventus & Catania. When looking at the current odds Juventus are 1.33 to win the game so we should look at ways where we can improve on this price.
- 1. Asian Handicap Markets
Firstly we can use the Asian Handicap and for this game Pinnacle are quoting Juventus -1.5 goals at 1.89. This means that for this bet to land Juventus have to win by two or more goals. So the following score lines would see a winning bet 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 3-1, 4-1, 4-2
When looking at the stats for this game I can see Juventus have won 6 of their last 10 at home to mid table sides and 5 of these 6 victories have covered the -1.5 goal handicap. When it comes to Catania we can see that when away to top 4 sides they have lost 7 of their last 10 matches and 6 where by 2 or more goals.
So here we can see that the home side have won 13 of 20 matches and 11 of these 13 victories were by 2 goals or more.
Positives – Your bet wins should Juventus win by 4 or 5 goals.
Negatives – You lose your bet should Juventus only win by 1 goal.
- 2. Dutching the Favourite – Winning Margin Markets
This is an excellent way to increase the price of the favourite what you are doing is looking to see how many goals that you think the favourite will win by.
So for example in the Winning margin market we see that the following odds are on offer
Juventus to win by 1 goal @ 3.75, Juventus to win by 2 goals @ 4.00, Juventus to win by 3 goals @ 6.00
So now you can look to take a view on the following.
Dutch to win by 1 or 2 goals
This means that you are placing 2 bets on Juventus to win by 1 and 2 goals in the winning margin market ensuring that you win the same amount no matter what the result
A dutching Calculator can be found at Oddschecker
You may think Juventus will win by 1 or 2 goals and if you Dutch (have an equal payout) Juventus to win by 1 or 2 goals you are dutch the 3.75 and 4.00
This means that if you are betting to £10 stakes you would place £5.16 at 3.75 on Juventus to win by 1 goal and £4.84 at 4.00 on Juventus to win by 2 goals.
So here dutch Juventus to win by 1 or 2 goals pays 1.93 which again is far more attractive than the 1.33 on offer and will
Negatives – Should Juventus win by 3 or more goals you lose your bet.
Dutch to win by 2 or 3 goals
This means that you are placing 2 bets on Juventus to win by 2 and 3 goals in the winning margin market ensuring that you win the same amount no matter what the result
if you Dutch (have an equal payout) Juventus to win by 2 or 3 goals you are dutching the prices 4.00 and 6.00
This means that if you are betting to £10 stakes you would place £6.00 at 4.00 on Juventus to win by 2 goals and £4.00 at 6.00 on Juventus to win by 3 goals.
So here dutch Juventus to win by 2 or 3 goals pays 2.40 which again is far more attractive than the 1.33 on offer.
When looking at the stats when the two sides have met similar opposition in the home sides 13 victories 10 were by 1 or 2 goals and also 10 were by 2 or 3 goals. So again either of these would look to be a good option.
Negatives – Juventus could win by the single goal or win by 4 or more goals.
- 3. Half Time / Full Time | Half Time Win
Another way of improving the price is to either back the home favourite in the half time / full time market or to win the 1st half and this example we can see that Juventus are priced at 1.83 to win by the Half time full time result and 1.75 to win the 1st half
Half time / Full time
In this example for your bet to land Juventus would have to
A. Be leading at Half time and
B. go on to win the match
The dangers are Juventus could be leading at half time but then Catania could come back in the second half and snatch a draw.
Winning at Half Time
For this bet to land Juventus must be leading at Half time
When looking at the stats when the two sides have met similar opposition in the home sides 13 victories 7 were by the Half Time / Full time result.
And looking at the 20 matches the favourite won the first half in 11 of these matches.
So looking at the above if you fancy the favourite it looks far better to back them to win the 1st half at 1.75 than to back them in the more risky Half Time / Full time Market.
If you would like to learn how you could trade the Half Time / Full time market then please see this excellent article.
- 4. Race to 2 goals
This means that you are backing the first team to score two goals. This can be a very useful bet as it allows for the 2-2 draw or the 2-3 defeat.
In the example of this match Juventus are priced at 1.50 to win the race to 2 goals
And looking at the 20 matches the favourite would have won the race to 2 goals in 12 of these matches.
- 5. Score over 1.5 goals
This means that you are backing the favourite to score two or more goals. This again can be a very useful bet as it allows for the 2-2 draw or the 2-3 defeat.
In the example of this match Juventus are priced at 1.45 to score over 1.5 goals
And looking at the 20 matches the favourite would have scored 2 or more goals in 12 of these matches.
It should be noted that in examples 4 and 5 the odds are not much higher than the 1.33 offered on Juventus to win the game. However if the favourite is priced around 1.80 – 2.00 you will often find that the price on the race to 2 goals and the favourite to score Over 1.50 can be substantially higher.
Looking at the above table you can see that based on the 20 games of historical data when these teams play against similar opposition that it pays dividends to try and find another abgle into the markets, and although the £7.90 profit on the Asian Handicap line is not great ( 4% Return on Investment) it is profitable when comparing to te extremely poor value the bookmakers are offering on the conventional match odds market, where staking £10 on each of the last 20 games presuming odds of 1.33 would have retuned you a loss of £27.10 ( -13.5% Return On Investment).
In summary there are quite a few ways you can look to improve on the short price offered by the bookmakers on the strong favourite and as can be seen from the above.
Always make sure that you take a good look at the stats and if you do decide you want to back the favourite in these alternative markets always check the stats to ensure that the bet you are placing makes logical sense.
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