Betting players make decisions in a variety of ways to place a bet. The majority of all betting fans bet on their favorite club every weekend in the Bundesliga or look for favorite odds in the betting program in order to achieve the highest possible bet win with a combination bet. This betting behavior is based on conviction and emotions and should primarily be fun and of course make the live broadcast of the respective sporting event more exciting. However, a small part of the betting community is completely different. Here, sports betting is analyzed and calculated on the basis of mathematical probabilities and our own expertise, taking into account the odds offered by different sites. Above all, mathematics helps
Review and understand the betting courses
Anyone who occasionally does sports betting as a hobby can be guided primarily by the bookmaker odds. If the provider gives a small quota on the favorites, the outcome is a clear thing. Betting sites calculate their betting odds based on various parameters.
For this purpose, the relationship between winning games, point division and defeat of both betting parties is compared. Trends are also assessed: What is the long-term track record and what does the short-term trend say? The location of the event also affects the quota, whether the game takes place at home or abroad, directly influences the course.
Of course, the current information situation is also used to publish the chance of winning. There are injured or suspended players and the opinion of the bookmaker also influences the odds display. This is exactly the big unknown in the betting program, which profit-oriented sports fans exclude with mathematical formulas.
More success through calculation models
A long preparation phase is required to make a profit from the betting approach with a mathematical system for betting. It is not to be assumed that you will be winning bets from the first moment, usually it takes time to find a model and develop a structure for more efficiency.
An important step at the beginning is to define a goal, because this is the only way to analyze the mass of data in a success-oriented manner. For example, if you want to specialize in the number of goals, you have to consider the metric of the average hit rate. It is not enough to probe the data situation of the sport, but the metric has to be broken down for each individual sports bet. This is the only way to predict clear probability of occurrence.
A time-consuming data analysis
In this context, professional betting is becoming much more experienced, it is no longer about average values of individual leagues and who has the better goal difference. Rather, it is about breaking down the betting parties in detail, taking into account the objectives.
Taking over-under betting as an example, this would mean examining the goals scored for home and away games and also making a long-term head-to-head comparison of the two opponents. Other influencing factors can play a decisive role in the context of a tournament or a season, such as the weather or the kick-off time.
Did the teams primarily score many goals in the warmer months or is the average constant? It is particularly important how the matches have ended in previous seasons and whether certain key players were on the pitch. Are the actors still involved and what form are they in at the moment? For a successful mathematical betting model, these are all important indicators that ambitious betting professionals have to take into account.
Use the data correctly
Data acquisition in the digital age is no longer so problematic. Modern bookmakers already provide many informative details on all betting games on their statistics pages. For more in-depth analysis, there are special websites that deal exclusively with statistical information about teams and athletes.
In order to capture the optimal data for the individual betting model, it is advisable to create an Excel table. This also enables all relevant coefficients for the event and the selected bet type to be calculated clearly and quickly using a bet formula. There are special software tools and tips from professionals in this area – the best-known calculation model is the Kelly formula – whereby the matrix has to be readjusted several times to perfection. Each betting player has different preferences and evaluates the calculated probability of entry differently.
With targeted analysis, efficient typing
Over time, with consistent data analysis and adherence to the betting model, the calculated weather results will play a more important role than the sports betting offered. The basis of every betting model is a good bookmaker. online betting sites listed in our test reports offer a solid odds level and a wide range of betting types for professionals and beginners.