There are literally hundreds of NFL betting systems out there today. Just look hard enough and I guarantee you can find one or twenty…and a lot of times they’ll cost you too. What a deal, I know.
Although there are a couple NFL betting systems that I think are worth the small payment (I’ll mention those below), I’d really like to focus on a few that I’ve researched myself or was told about from a professional handicapper. I account for all of them in my overall NFL betting strategy…unlike some people who are just “touting.”
Before we jump right in though, there’s a few rules you must follow if you’re going to be implementing NFL betting systems into your overall NFL handicapping strategy/philosophy. By far the most important rule is to never just bet a game blindly because it fits into a system.
You still have to justify why the team is a good bet through sound and thorough research…this will never change, no matter what. Systems come and go, so there will be times when they no longer are profitable. If a system becomes so successful (NFL Monday Night Home Underdog), then the oddsmakers will began to adjust the lines thus depleting the value in it.
In other words, never fall in the love with a system, because it won’t last forever. As with anything in sports betting, you have to be able to make adjustments, adapt, and change. Change can be difficult, but it’s a reality in any industry. It’s those that adapt the quickest who become the most successful.
Ok, I’m sure you’re tired of my philosophical BS, so let’s take a look at some NFL betting systems. Over time, I’ll continue to add new ones and delete ones that are no longer profitable.
NFL Betting Systems: Sports Betting Professor and Bookie Buster
I grouped both of these together because they’re the only two NFL betting systems I recommend that aren’t free. They’re both very different, especially in that Bookie Buster is actually an ebook of 25 different systems…some good and some not so good. But all in all, there are a few that can be applied to the NFL.
As I said before, I continue to use both and have always been able to profit from them. Although I might not be a huge fan of some of there marketing tactics, it all comes down to the bottom line. Since they are systems you have to purchase (both less than $100) and I’ve written thorough reviews for each, I won’t go into anymore detail here.
NFL Betting System: Points Scored
Since we’re just starting, we’ll keep the first one very simple. But who really cares if it’s simple, we want it to be profitable and this system has certainly proven to be that. I actually picked up on this one from Allen Moody who does a fantastic job of writing about sports betting at About.com.
So here it is: Bet with the 5 highest scoring teams (from week to week) and bet against the 5 lowest scoring teams. Pretty simple, huh? For the 6 years from 2003-2008, the 5 highest scoring teams were 279-186 (60%) ATS and the lowest scoring teams were 202-265 (43%) ATS. I know that it’s only a 6 year time frame, so we’ll definitely continue to track it to make sure it’s still profitable.
Yes, you will be laying some points with this system (never bet it blindly), but it has proven that oddsmakers still haven’t been able to adjust the line enough for high scoring teams. Again though, you’ll have to track the numbers to make sure the system still holds true and has not been played out.
For me personally, I’m not a huge fan of betting big favorites, but I definitely keep an eye on who the top scoring and lowest scoring teams in the NFL are from week to week.
NFL Betting System: Fade The Squares
Although I’d like to take credit for this, I can’t. I first read about it from an article written by Fezzik in “All In” magazine back in 2006. He actually learned it from a professional handicapper that goes by the name of “Eight of Clubs.”
The following is taken directly from the article written by Fezzik in “All In” magazine (edited a little bit by me, but credit has been given).
Every Tuesday, write down (print off) all the football lines (both NFL and NCAA), sides and totals, for the upcoming weekend. Don’t look at it again until Saturday.
One hour before kickoff, mark any game where the side or total has moved up by two or more points, fade the steam and come over the top playing the other side. Basically you’ll just be taking the underdog or the under with an extra two points in your pocket versus the midweek line.
The key here is to fade line moves only on favorites and overs, as these tend to be the “square” moves in the market. Suspect sports services and recreational bettors love to fire their money in on favorites and overs and it’s these bets you want to fade, not those of the dialed-in pro syndicates.
To give yourself the best chance to come out a winner with this technique, aggressively shop for even better lines (than the first good one you see) and the lowest vigorish, as well.(end of article).
If you know me by now or have been reading my NFL Betting Guide, then you know that I always like to look at the underdog and under first when I’m handicapping games. I can assure you tremendous value can be found betting the underdog and unders, and this is one system that proves it.
NFL Betting System: Betting On NFL Road Teams
This is another one of those NFL betting systems that I picked up from Allen Moody over at About.com and has proven to be very profitable over a long period of time. Backtesting has shown that this system has hit over 55% through the years (although I always recommend you backtest yourself to confirm).
Granted, 55% may not sound like much, but that’s a huge advantage in sports betting. You should always make a bet when you have a 55% or greater chance of winning…any professional handicapper will tell you the same thing.
The system is to bet on road teams in the second or third game of back-to-back road games if they lost the previous game on the road (a team playing 3 games back-to-back-to-back on the road doesn’t occur as often, but it will happen).
So basically, you will bet on a road team as long as their prior game was on the road and they lost. However, teams with a bye week in between those road games do not count. The rationale is that the road team maybe receiving an extra point or two since they just lost on the road and will again be playing on the road.
NFL Betting System: Bye Weeks
There’s a couple NFL betting systems that I’ll mention here. I’ve known about each one for a few years now but they’re both proving to be very solid and very profitable. It’s simply to bet on a winless team after it’s bye week, provided it’s an underdog.
This trend is currently 19-2 after the 2009 NFL season. It won again in 2009 with Tampa Bay getting 9.5 at home against Green Bay…Tampa Bay actually won the game outright by 10.
The other bye week trend that has proven to be very successful over the years: bet on a team that is favored by 6.5 points or more the game before a bye. Once again, in the 2009 season, it was profitable going 4-2.
As with all of these trends and NFL betting systems though, you have to research the data and make sure it still applies because trust me, it won’t last forever.
NFL Betting System: A Rare One
As with a few other of the NFL betting systems here, I have to give credit again to Allen Moody at About.com for sharing this one. It is a much more rare system and typically only occurs about once a year.
From what I’ve calculated, the system has been 12-1 from the 1989 season to the end of the 2009 season. Here it is: bet against any team (as long as they’re playing a non-divisional opponent) that has scored 30 or more points in two straight games, while allowing 10 or fewer points in each of it’s last two games.
So there we have it, some great NFL betting systems and trends that actually have some substance, but more importantly, have proven to be profitable over a long period of time.