Our next section of the guide will go over some NFL betting tips that I personally use and recommend to all serious handicappers. Now certainly these aren’t the only tips you should follow and by no means do you have to pursue all of them to be successful.
These are the NFL betting tips that make up my core philosophy to wagering on the National Football League. I truly believe you should have some “set in stone” principles written down that you can always go back and review.
Again, I know I sound like a broken record here, but if you want to be successful at betting on the NFL then you need to take some time and develop a philosophy that you will always follow. Obviously, there will always be changes, but you want to have some kind of starting point as opposed to just throwing darts.
Like I said though, these are just some of the NFL betting tips that I use in my everyday handicapping. It’s up to you to put in the time and create your own so you have the groundwork for a sound NFL betting strategy. Let’s take a look.
Do Not Chase Your Losses Or Bet Everything On One Game To Try And Bail Yourself Out
This is without a doubt the biggest reason why so many people go broke and get into trouble when gambling. As boring as it sounds, betting on the NFL (or any sport) is a long term investment and you’re going to have losing streaks.
There’s just no way around it. As long you have a sound handicapping system in place or are following a proven handicapper, there’s no need to go astray from your money management plan. You’re going to have losing streaks. What separates the professional handicappers from the squares is how you handle those losing streaks.
The pro’s stick to their plan because the tide will always turn. They never EVER try to bail them self out of a hole on one game. This is the absolute stupidest thing you can do. I’ll say it again: stick to your money management plan and NEVER CHASE YOUR LOSSES.
Passing On A Game Is Not The End Of The World
So many people think they have to bet on every game because they need the action. Well, this is another one of those NFL betting tips in the “what not to do” category (unless you want to lose your bankroll really fast).
Yes, you may end up winning some that you passed on, but I can guarantee you’ll end up losing more in the long run. If a game doesn’t fit all of your criterion then move on and handicap the next. Being able to pass on a game (I know you’ve heard me say it before) is what separates the pro’s from the amateurs.
Bet Early In The Week
Talk to any professional handicapper and they’ll tell you the softest lines are the first ones released by the sportsbook (which is why there are smaller limits). The sharpest bets are the ones made on the opening lines, which typically come out on Sunday afternoon when the current weeks games are being played.
You can find great value in these lines, but they get adjusted quickly. Any mistake you find according to your data must be acted upon immediately to take advantage of +EV.
Granted, most people aren’t thinking about next weeks games while the current ones are being played, but if you want to become one of the few that actually win at NFL betting, then you have to take advantage of every opportunity…and this means jumping on early soft lines.
Bet Early In The Season (and even before the season)
While this is somewhat similar to our previous tip, this is one of those NFL betting tips you won’t hear from the “so called betting experts.” Tremendous value (+EV) can be found by betting games earlier in the year.
Heck, opening lines for the first week are released weeks before those actual games are played. If you’ve done your research (and it’s solid) then you have to take advantage of +EV because it won’t be there forever.
Lines are even listed for select games throughout the year before the season starts as well. Again, if you’ve done your homework, then you can find tremendous opportunities.
This is definitely one of the best NFL betting tips you’ll ever get: Lines are much softer earlier in the season, so this is when the majority of your biggest wagers should be made.
Don’t Make It To Complicated
This is where a lot of handicappers get burnt out and start making mistakes. Plain and simple: don’t make it more complicated than it has to be. Granted, you do need to spend some time studying the games but don’t go overboard.
As you’ve probably heard before, use the KISS method (Keep It Simple Stupid). Analysis by paralysis won’t get you anywhere. Stick to your NFL betting philosophy and just don’t make it harder than it needs to be. Remember, watching and gambling on the NFL should be enjoyable…at least most of the time.
Don’t Listen To Your Friends Or Anyone On TV For That Matter (go against them if anything)
Trust me, this is one of those NFL betting tips that will save you and make you a lot of money over time. Your friends and the so called “NFL experts” on ESPN and the pregame shows aren’t professional handicappers.
They may seem like they know a lot, but ask anyone that’s “in the know” and they will tell you them same. You’re much better off going against what they’re telling you to do. As you’ve read before on the site, they don’t build those billion dollar casino’s out in Vegas because everybody is making the right picks. Go against the public (most of the time) and you’ll be a much more successful NFL bettor.
Don’t Bet On A Big Game Just Because It’s On TV
This is along the same lines as another one of my NFL betting tips; passing on a game is not the end of the world. If a game is on TV, you don’t have to bet it.
If it doesn’t meet your handicapping criterion then just sit back and study the game for the next time they play. Discipline is very important when betting on the NFL. Know when to exploit an advantage and know when to lay off.
Study the Stats
This is one of those NFL betting tips that sounds so simple, but so many people just don’t put in the time to do it. To be successful at anything, you need to put in a little time and gambling on football is no exception.
Study the teams and their stats on a weekly basis. It’s not difficult and eventually you’ll have a great understanding of how each team performs from week to week. Do this one thing and I guarantee you’re win percentage will increase drastically.
Keep A Close Eye On Injuries
Whether it’s injuries or stats, we list some great sports betting research websites that you should bookmark (along with this too of course). Knowing who is injured or banged up (especially on the offensive line) will make a tremendous difference in how you handicap a game.
Knowing who is injured may not make you a lot of money, but I can promise you it’ll save you a lot of money. I’ll say it again, just put in the time.
Look For Underdogs Because There
Is A Lot Of Parity In The NFL
One of the best NFL betting tips I can give you is to really focus in on teams getting points. Don’t be afraid to bet the underdog.
Public perception is everything in the NFL and the oddsmakers know it. The public loves betting on the favorite (and the over) and the sportsbooks are more than happy to take there action. Most of the time the line gets inflated (especially in a nationally televised game) and the underdog is the right play a great deal of the time.
It’s usually best to bet underdogs closer to game time because the public will be betting the number up during the week. This allows you to get the best line possible (although this won’t always be 100% accurate). There is a lot of parity in the NFL and the underdog may not be the sexy pick, but I can promise you there can be a ton of value by betting the dog.
On a side note, this same exact tip can be applied to betting the under as well. A lot of times value can be found in betting the under because the public loves seeing points scored (especially in a big televised game). Remember, you typically don’t want to be on the same side as the public or the majority of bettors because they’re usually wrong.
Go With Undervalued Teams
Just as I previously stated, value is what you want when it comes to handicapping the NFL. For the most part this falls on the underdog, but there can always be value with a favorite as well.
You want to try and find those games that the public is pounding and inflating the line. Value is when a team should realistically be getting 6 points but are actually getting 7.5. Studying lines and key numbers is crucial to handicapping the NFL.
There’s a great website called Sports Insights that I highly recommend to anyone that’s serious about betting on sports. They offer the kind of information and NFL betting tips we discuss here that can help you become a much more knowledgeable handicapper.
Don’t Be Afraid To Bet On An Underdog Straight Up
If you’ve done your research on a game and feel that an underdog should win straight up then don’t be afraid to bet the money line (especially when they’re getting 2.5 points or less).
Underdogs win all the time in the NFL, you just have to put in the time to know which ones give you the best value. Don’t be afraid to bet a 6,7, or even 8 point underdog at times. With the money line having better odds, you don’t have to win nearly as many games to make a profit. Be confident in your handicapping.
Always Check The Weather
Another one of those NFL betting tips that seems so obvious. But you have no idea how often the weather is overlooked. Just take the extra minute to check the forecast before betting on a game. It’s just to important and to easy to pass up.
Weather is especially important in December when it starts getting cold. Games played at cold weather stadiums in December (Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, New England, and Pittsburgh) can have a major impact on offensive numbers, which can create excellent value for the under.
Since we’re already talking about weather, another one of the great NFL betting tips to pay attention to is when a non-playoff, non-cold weather team is playing at a cold weather stadium. Typically, motivation is very low, it’s freezing cold, could be bad weather, and they basically have nothing to play for.
More importantly though, the cold weather team is accustomed to the conditions, giving them a great advantage. This is a great tip to look for when handicapping December NFL games.
Watch The Games
I know, I know, what the hell? There are so many people out there that bet on an NFL team and have never even seen them play before. It cost a little money, but I highly encourage you to get the NFL Sunday Ticket on Direct TV.
You really do need to be able to watch and study the games. This will give much more insight into how a team plays when they’re winning or losing and what adjustments they make (or don’t make). Again, I will guarantee you that every oddsmaker is watching the games, so it’s very important that you do the same.
Bet On Teams That Consistently Make Adjustments And Play Better After Halftime
From watching the games, you’ll be able to know which teams are good at making adjustments throughout the game. In other words, you want to find coaches and teams that are able to adapt and change.
Betting on a team that can make those adjustments is one of those NFL betting tips that will serve you for a long time to come. These are the teams that will bring the money in over the length of a season.
Well, there you have it. That rounds out some of my most important NFL betting tips. Hopefully you picked up a few you haven’t seen before and are able to implement them into your overall NFL betting philosophy.