Scottish Independence Odds
The Scottish Independence Referendum is scheduled for Thursday 18th September 2014. An unusual milestone in British history, the Scottish vote will determine the future of British and Scottish government integration. As keen political punters will know, the Scottish Referendum is a hot media topic and area of debate in both Scotland and other British constituencies – let’s find out more about how the process will work and how to make a few quid betting on the outcome.
A Brief Parliamentary History Of England And Scotland
The UK (or United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) has had a tempestuous history since its formation in 1800. In 1706, an act was passed by England called the “Union with Scotland Act 1706″. The following year, Scotland passed the “Union with England Act 1707″. Subsequently the “Acts of Union 1707″ was put into action, joining the Kingdom of Scotland with the Kingdom of England, both of which were separate countries, into the Kingdom of Great Britain.
Prior to the agreement, the country we now know as Wales was part of the Kingdom of England, and Northern Ireland was part of the Kingdom of Ireland. By 1800, the “Acts of Union 1800″ joined the Kingdom of Great Britain with the Kingdom of Ireland, forming the UK as we now know it.
The United Kingdom is a monarchy, currently headed by Queen Elizabeth II. While the monarch is head of state, a separate government (called “Her Majesty’s Government”) determines the laws of the country. Queen Elizabeth II has executive power over the government and is responsible for appointing the government head (although democratic elections are held first). The Prime Minister (currently David Cameron) is the head of the government and oversees the British Parliament in Westminster, London.
All legislature is decided by three parties: the House of Commons (comprising of elected representatives), the House of Lords (ancestors of previous Lords and key members of the Church of England) and the Sovereign (the Queen). All laws must be given Royal Assent (approval by the Queen) before being passed. When England and Scotland joined together in 1707, the Parliament of England and the Parliament of Scotland also combined, creating the Parliament of Great Britain.
For almost 300 years following the “Acts of Union 1707″, all British laws applied to both England and Scotland. In the early 20th century, Scottish politicians began campaigning for greater freedom from England and UK law. By 1978, an attempt to set up a Scottish Assembly started after the “Scotland Act 1978″ was passed. However, the referendum did not get enough support and was not put into effect. Demand for a Scottish government continued and in 1997 a Scottish Devolution Referendum was held.
The referendum finished in favour of devolution, with 74.3% (1,775,045 votes) of voters agreeing that there should be a separate Scottish Parliament. Only Scottish residents were permitted to vote in the referendum. The first Scottish election was held on 6th May 1999 and by 1st July 1999, power of Scotland was moved from Westminster to Edinburgh. The Scottish Parliament Building was built in 2004 and is situated in Holyrood, Edinburgh.
What Is the Scottish Independence Referendum?
Following the successful Scottish Devolution Referendum of 1997, Scotland is now requesting complete autonomy away from England and the UK. Devolution current permits Scotland to control its own localised laws, but other legislation such as foreign policy, immigration and trade laws are still controlled by Westminster. Complete independence will mean that Scottish Parliament is responsible for all policies, laws and decisions and the country will no longer be part of the United Kingdom.
Scottish Independence: Yes Or No?
Stances on Scottish independence fall into two categories: ‘Yes Scotland’ (pro-independence’) and ‘Better Together’ (against independence). The current Scottish Parliament head, SNP (Scottish National Party) leader Alex Salmond, is pushing for Scotland’s independence, while the opposition is headed up by Labour MP for Edinburgh South West, Alistair Darling. The betting opportunities for the Scottish Independence Referendum are incredibly simple – you can put a win bet on “Yes” or a win bet on “No”. Odds are varying wildly depending on the latest political propaganda and debate outcomes, but a general trend is seeing more people bet on “Yes”.
Getting It Right: Scottish Independence Odds
With only two odds to calculate, it would seem that bookies have the upper hand when it comes to Scottish Independence odds. Actually, that’s not entirely the case. With just two odds to check, it’s really easy for punters to have a quick look online, compare the odds from each bookie and put on a bet at the highest rate. It’s unlikely that you’ll be able to find good enough odds for a sure bet (i.e. betting on both “Yes” and “No”), but it’s worth a try. The best way to make some cash on the Scottish vote is to predict the correct outcome.
Here are some top tips to help you make the perfect punt:1. Use history to your advantage.Historically, Scotland and England have had many conflicts, political disagreements and even full-blown wars. If you look carefully, the fight for Scottish independence always becomes stronger when there’s a Conservative party heading up Westminster. Despite the coalition Liberal Democrat government, David Cameron’s regime has a definite conservative angle.
When the first Scottish Devolution Referendum (1979) went ahead, it did not pass because the 51.6% of “Yes” voters only made up less than 40% of Scotland’s population due to low turnout. The Prime Minister at the time was Margaret Thatcher, a Conservative MP. However, Thatcher had only been in power for 5 months when the referendum was held. The second (and successful) Scottish Devolution Referendum was held during Tony Blair’s time as Labour Prime Minister, after he promised to hold the vote as part of his election campaign (in which he unseated Conservative MP John Major).
This evidence tells us that, in the last 35 years all Scottish votes to gain greater independence have resulted in more than 50% of voters in favour. Coupled with a dislike of Conservative politics, the evidence points to a “Yes” vote of at least 51%. Additionally, Alex Salmond, the current Scottish Parliament leader who was democratically voted into power, is strongly in favour of independence.2.
Use the media to gauge public opinion.It’s been said time and time again that if you want to know what people are thinking, try looking at what they’re saying. Newspapers always have their own stances, but take a look at reader comments and social media discussion to see what people really think. Bear in mind that voters tend to be older than the usual social media demographic, and that opinions from non-Scottish residents are unlikely to affect the vote.3.
Keep track of the opinion polls.Media agencies and data collection firms are always taking opinion polls on upcoming votes. Scottish Independence odds are likely to be affected by the most recent opinion polls so keep yourself in the loop. Try the website whatscotlandthinks.org for daily polls, but remember than non-Scottish residents may have voted and skewed the results.
At the end of the day there are only two options to choose from with your Scottish Independence bet – pick “Yes” if you like to bet on the bookies’ favourite or opt for “No” if you like high odds and increased profits. If Scotland votes in favour of independence, March 24th 2016 is likely to become the country’s first new bank holiday, thereafter known as Scottish Independence Day. If you win big, there might be extra cause for celebration too.