The betting rate is a central element in sports betting. But what does it mean and what can you do with it? Let’s get to the bottom of these questions …
Betting odds and probability
Why is a betting odds 4.3 and not 2.0 or 5.6? Very easily. The bookmaker calculates the probability of each possible outcome of this bet for each bet offered. He then converts this probability into a betting odds. So the betting odds are nothing more than the implied probability of the bookmaker and anything but an arbitrarily invented number. In other words, betting odds are just another way of expressing probabilities. Instead of saying that a result has the probability of x%, x can be translated into a number. This number is the betting odds. The conversion is carried out using the following formula:
Betting odds = 100% / probability
For example, if the bookmaker calculated that a team had a 40% chance of winning a game, the calculation of the odds would look like this:
Betting odds = 100% / 40% = 2.5
If the probability calculation is a proud 80%, the betting odds would be as follows:
Betting odds = 100% / 80% = 1.25
Interim conclusion: the lower the betting odds, the more likely the bookmaker considers the event. Or vice versa, the higher the odds, the less likely the bookmaker will estimate the occurrence of this event.
Understanding betting odds is the basis for all of your bets. Always remember that betting odds are probabilities that are just slightly different. In this way you can calculate betting odds from probabilities, and vice versa, you can use betting odds from the bookmaker to determine the underlying probability. Let’s look at an example of how this works .
The bookmaker offers us odds 4.3, 4.0 and 1.75 for the match shown above. To calculate the implied probability of the three possible betting outcomes, we rearrange the formula as follows:
Probability = 100 / betting odds
The bookmaker therefore assumes the following probabilities:
Home win Liverpool = 100 / 4.3 = 23.26%
Draw = 100 / 4.0 = 25%
Away win Real Madrid = 100 / 1.75 = 57.14%
Based on these probabilities, you can now assess whether a bet is worthwhile or not. Of course, you should only bet if you believe that the real probability is higher than the implied probability of the bookmaker. So if you think the probability of a Liverpool home win is 25% or higher, then you should bet. This procedure is the core of successful sports betting and is called Value.
Calculation of profit
How much money can I actually win? The question of possible profit is of course very interesting in sports betting and can basically be answered very simply. Your profit is calculated using a very simple formula:
Profit = stake * betting odds
The stake is the amount of money you bet and is determined by yourself. The betting odds is the small number that is given next to the sporting events for each betting outcome. It is offered by the bookmaker and cannot be negotiated or changed.
In the table you can see a number of Champions League games. To the left of the pairings you can see the day of the week and the time of the game and to the right the betting odds for the three possible outcomes (1 = home win), 2 = draw and 3 = away win.
For example :
Let’s take the first game from the list above and bet EUR 10 on Liverpool’s home win (ie betting outcome “1”). The quota for this is offered at 4.3.
Should Liverpool actually win the game, we will get back the stake multiplied by the offered odds. In this case that would be 43 EUR (10 EUR stake * 4.3 betting odds). Of course, the difference between profit and net profit is important. The net profit is the amount you have in your pocket after the bet. To calculate, simply subtract your stake from the winnings and receive EUR 33 net profit (EUR 43 profit – EUR 10 stake). If Liverpool does not win the game, so the game ends in a draw or Real Madrid wins, the bookmaker will keep your bet of EUR 10 to himself.
When it comes to football betting and most other sports, the home team is given first place by default, then the away team. In the case of events that do not have a clear home participant (for example tennis), the order of listing is the responsibility of the respective bookmaker. This is not a big problem, but you should be careful when comparing odds with different bookmakers, for example.
- The betting odds in sports betting represent the implied probability
- The probability is the chance that something specific will happen
- Betting odds are an important part of a bet and largely determine the possible profit
- The higher the betting odds, the higher the possible profit (but the lower the probability)
- The lower the betting odds, the lower the possible profit (but the higher the probability)
- (Gross) profit = bet x betting odds
- (Net) profit = (bet x betting odds) – bet