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Over/Under goals markets

Over/Under goals markets you may not have considered?

backing unconventional Over/Under goals markets

With the average number of goals scored in Premier League match being anywhere between 2.40 and 2.80 depending on the season there are some good betting opportunities on the Asian Handicap goal lines as opposed to betting on the traditional Over/under 2.5 goals you may well be used to and conditioned to bet on.

If you have never come across these markets before then initially they can seem confusing and complicated. However with just a little bit of time and effort learning them can pay dividends as well as increase you betting options. First of all we will take a look at the lines and what would happen to your bet dependant on the number of goals scored. We suggest that you bookmark this page for easy reference before placing a bet.

Then after this we will look at an example of how these markets can be exploited, as well as show you how a very similar bet returns over 30% more profit.

Over Under goals markets

Over 2.00 goals. 

If backing Over 2.00 goals and one or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.  If two goals are scored then you get your stake BACK (This is known as a PUSH). If three or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 2.00 goals

If backing Under 2.00 goals and one or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If two goals are scored then you get your STAKE BACK (this is known as a PUSH). If three or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.

Over 2.25 goals. 

If backing Over 2.25 goals and one or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.  If two goals are scored then you LOSE HALF of your stake. If three or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 2.25 goals

If backing Under 2.25 goals and one or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If two goals are scored then you WIN HALF of your stake. If three or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.

Over 2.50 goals. 

If backing Over 2.50 goals and two or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake. If three or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 2.50 goals

If backing Under 2.50 goals and two or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If three or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.

 Over 2.75 goals. 

If backing Over 2.75 goals and two or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.  If three goals are scored then you WIN HALF of your stake. If four or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 2.75 goals

If backing Under 2.75 goals and two or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If three goals are scored then you LOSE HALF of your stake. If four or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.

Over 3.00 goals. 

If backing Over 3.00 goals and two or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.  If three goals are scored then you get your stake BACK (This is known as a PUSH). If four or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 3.00 goals

If backing Under 3.00 goals and two or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If three goals are scored then you get your STAKE BACK (this is known as a PUSH). If four or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.

Over 3.25 goals.

If backing Over 3.25 goals and two or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.  If three goals are scored then you LOSE HALF of your stake. If four or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 3.25 goals

If backing Under 3.25 goals and two or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If three goals are scored then you WIN HALF of your stake. If four or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake

Over 3.50 goals. 

If backing Over 3.50 goals and three or less goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake. If four or more goals are scored then you WIN your bet.

Under 3.50 goals

If backing Under 2.50 goals and three or less goals are scored then you WIN your bet.  If four or more goals are scored then you LOSE your full stake.


Let’s take a look at a recent Premier League match between Swansea v Stoke to see how backing on the Asian handicap lines can be far more beneficial than backing the traditional Over/Under 2.5 goals

When looking at the markets we see the following stats

When Swansea have faced teams of Stokes grading there has been Over 2.5 goals in 5 matches and Under 2.5 goals in 4 matches and when looking at Stoke Citys away record to teams of Swanseas grading  the record reads Over 2.5 goals in 5 matches and Under 2.5 goals in 5 matches.

So as we can see if we had backed Over 2.5 goals we would have won in 10 matches and lost in 9. Now the prices in this Over /Under 2.5 market in this game read Overs 2.28 and Unders 1.70 and although it looks as though Overs offers some value there is still a good chance that the game will end with 2 or less goals as this has happened in 9 matches.

Now if we look at the Over / Under 2.25 goals we can see that Overs is priced 2.00 and Unders is priced at 1.99 but the great thing about this bet is that if only 2 goals are scored you would only lose half of your stake.

If we look at Swanseas home record to teams of Stoke Citys grading you would have seen 3 or more goals in 5 matches, 2 goals in 3 matches and 1 or less goal in only 1 match. So when it comes to Swansea you would have won in 5 matches lost half your stake in 3 matches and lost your full stake in only 1 match.

In the case of Stoke City away to teams of Swanseas grading you would have seen 3 or more goals in 5 matches, 2 goals in 3 matches and 1 or less goal in only 2 matches. So when it comes to Stoke you would have won in 5 matches lost half your stake in 3 matches and lost your full stake in only 2 matches.

Now this means if you think at least 2 goals will be scored and there is every reason to believe so as there was in 16 of the above 19 matches you can probably afford to be a little bolder in your staking. Once again we are confident of seeing goals as when both sides have played similar opposition there has only been 1 or less goals in 3 of 19 matches

Now let’s look at the following.

For example if you staked to win £10 on Over 2.5 goals in all of the above 19 games and if we assume that the price is the same as the price quoted today 2.28 (stake required £7.81 x 2.28 = £10) you would have had 10 winners (10 x £10) showing a £100 profit and 9 Losers (9 x £7.80) showing a £70.29 loss for an overall profit of £29.71.

Now as we have seen if we had backed the over 2.25 goal line we would have seen only 3 full losers. Backing Over 2.25 goals at 2.00 (stakes to win £10 =£10) we would have had 10 winners (10 x £10.00) showing a £100 profit 6 x half losers (6 x £5 = £30) and 3 full losses (3 x £10 = £30) which gives a total profit of £40.

So as we can see from the above on both occasions we have staked to win the same profit but when looking at the 2.25 goal handicap we have increased our profits by over 30% compared to backing on the conventional Over/Under 2.5 goal market.

Now this looks fairly simple however you are strongly advised to profile your matches but certainly if gives you more flexibility in your approach when betting on the goal lines as opposed to the rigidity of the conventional Over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5.

If you liked the staking approach in the example above keep an eye out for our article coming soon that covers one of the most important factors in achieving long term profits.

Looking for an Asian Handicap betting guide for the  Match odds

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