Most of those who are interested in betting on current sporting events use their gut feeling to make a decision. Only very few deal with the theory behind it, or even mathematical contexts – it is precisely these contexts that make the profits possible for both bookmakers and sports bettors. It is therefore an advantage for anyone who is seriously concerned with the matter to find out exactly how such an online betting site makes its coal – after all, we also want to get something out of the cake.
The calculation and establishment of betting odds
The linchpin of the whole story is the betting odds. They represent the probability with which an expected result will come about. A highly simplified and fictional example would be betting on FC Bayern Munich, which plays against Hamburger SV. The last four duels went completely wrong for the Hanseatic League, so the bookmaker sets the odds for Bayern to 1 and for Rothosen to 30. Which means: The bookie thinks Bayern wins in any case. This example is, of course, quite correct, because in this case the sports weather that bets on Bayern’s victory would go away completely empty – The player who bets on HSV gets his bet back 30 times in the event of a victory. Also: Just because Bayern have won the last four games doesn’t mean anything.
So various factors such as shape, injured players, new coaches etc. are brought into play and suddenly we have a odds of 1.31 to 7.28 or something like that. It becomes even clearer in comparison to casino games: In roulette, 36 numbers plus the zero or the double zero in the American variant can be selected, giving the player a 38: 1 chance of winning. Thus, the chance of winning stands at 2.7 percent – a good deal for the casino operator. In the same way, the chances of winning are In roulette, 36 numbers plus the zero or the double zero in the American variant can be selected, giving the player a 38: 1 chance of winning. Thus, the chance of winning stands at 2.7 percent – a good deal for the casino operator. In the same way, the chances of winning are In roulette, 36 numbers plus the zero or the double zero in the American variant can be selected, giving the player a 38: 1 chance of winning. Thus, the chance of winning stands at 2.7 percent – a good deal for the casino operator. In the same way, the chances of winning are
- Black jack
calculated. But as already mentioned: in contrast to the ball in roulette, the games in football can never be repeated as often as often on the same conditions – that’s what makes online sports betting so attractive. There will never be a perfect quota – sport is too unpredictable for that. This can also be clearly recognized by the following fact. If we place a winning bet on the home team three days before a game but the most important player is injured during training the day before the match, the odds will suddenly increase. Bad luck for us, because for us the odds apply, for which we originally placed a bet. Good for the bookmaker, because the chances that the away team will win has just increased.
The quota key
There are providers who pay a lot of their income back to sports bettors, while others keep an above-average amount of the income. This distribution amount is to be calculated using the so-called quota key. The best odds key is therefore 100 percent – but that would mean that the bookmaker in question pays out all the amounts paid in by his customers. A rather unrealistic scenario. As a rule, the best sports betting providers have a quota key between 90 and 95 percent. So the blinding percentages are the bookmaker’s profits – the money that he earns. With the simple formula 1 / (1 / odds home + 1 / odds draw + 1 / odds guest) x 100, this key can be calculated for each individual game and each provider. Let’s have fun with the game FC Bayern Munich vs FC Augsburg from (26.10.2016):
- bet365: 1 / (1 / 1.10 + 1 / 10.00 + 1 / 18.00) x 100 = 93.93%
- expekt: 1 / (1 / 1.08 + 1 / 9.00 + 1 / 18.00) x 100 = 91.53%
- cherry sports: 1 / (1 / 1.07 + 1 / 9.75 + 1 / 28.50) x 100 = 93.26%
So we see there are big differences here too. Sure, a difference between 1-2 percent doesn’t sound like much at first, but the crowd does it in the end. However, a betting provider should not only be rated according to the odds key, there are much more important features to consider.
Choosing the right site
Choosing the right betting site is not always easy. After all, trust must first arise at the relationship level and most beginners will probably turn to bookmakers who they know, for example, from advertising or sponsorship. Examples include bet365 or Tipico, which are also represented in top German sports. But the choice of sports betting is also an important criterion. Again, it depends on the player’s preferences – does the provider offer the sport that I like best? How deep are the betting options or can I only bet on winning and losing? Such questions usually only arise in marginal sports. Interesting are among other things betting on goals betting strategy.
How much should you bet?
Another important question is how intensively sports betting should be lived out. Does the profit have to be used to pay a living? Or is it just about having fun with Freud? Depending on the direction in which the answer to this question tends, one, two or even more betting providers are used at the same time in order to achieve the set goal. The following is also crucial for self-protection:
- Set limit – never use more money than you have available
- Sports betting is initially supposed to be a bonus – so don’t bet more money than would be available for another hobby
- Do not be discouraged – it is hardly possible in the sports betting sector to always type correctly