Odds are an important factor in betting because you ultimately decide the amount of the win. The higher the stakes, the more even minimal deviations become noticeable. But are there any tricks in sports betting odds that can help you get lucky? We want to address this topic in the following short article.
No matter how clever you go, success or failure ultimately depend solely on the outcome of the respective sporting event. This cannot be influenced even with the best sports betting odds tricks. How much of a possible win ends up in the betting account is at least partially in your hands.
How do betting odds actually come about?
First of all, it is important to get a basic understanding of how bookmakers’ odds are determined. Let’s take a football game between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund as an example. The classic three-way bet (1X2 bet) offers three options: win Bayern (1), win BVB (2) and draw (X). Experts are now using complex procedures to estimate the probability of results (e) for all three outputs.
After analyzing statistics, shape curves and sports news, you come to the following result in our fictitious example:
- Bayern win: 44% probability
- BVB win: 32% probability
- Draw: 24% probability
The sum must logically always be 100 percent. The so-called fair quota (rounded to two decimal places) is first determined using formula 100 / e :
- Victory Bavaria: 2.27
- BVB win: 3.13
- Draw: 4.17
Then the bookmakers calculate your respective profit margin . This is usually in the range of two to ten percent. For our example, we assume five percent, which already results in a very lucrative quota level. The initial value is multiplied by 0.95 and we get the following real odds :
- Victory Bavaria: 2.16
- BVB victory: 2.97
- Draw: 3.96
In order to be able to assess the quality of betting odds, the so-called payout key (or odds key) is useful. With the classic three-way bet, you calculate it as follows:
- Payout key = 1 / (1 / odds tip 1 + 1 / odds tip X + 1 / odds tip 2)
Our example shows a very good value of 0.95 or 95 percent. When betting, only bet on bookmakers with an average odds ratio of over 93 percent . Such providers comparatively fair their profit margin. The bottom line is that you as a user can achieve higher profits in the long term.
The best odds trick: find value bets
Everyone is talking about the term value bets in sports betting, but what is hidden behind it is not clear to many users. The best way to translate Value Bet is “Value Bet”. As explained earlier, the basis for determining odds is the probability of results. With value bets, it is assumed that the probability calculated by the bookmaker does not correspond to the real circumstances.
This can be illustrated well in our example of the game between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. The betting site specifies a fictitious odds of 2.16 for the victory of the FCB. However, after an in-depth analysis, you personally come to the conclusion that this outcome is much more likely than it reflects the odds. Let’s assume that BVB have to give up their most important striker for a short time or the players rebel against the coach. No matter which reasons are ultimately decisive – value bets promise a relatively safe profit at a lucrative rate.
It’s always worth comparing quotas
Bookmakers generally evaluate the outcome of sports events at their own discretion, which means that the quotations offered can differ in principle. Even if the deviations are often only minimal, the comparison is particularly worthwhile for higher stakes. If bets are placed regularly, substantial sums accumulate in the long term if you give your tips on the maximum odds available.
To get from Odds Comparison to benefit maximum, you should simultaneously logged on to several bookies be . First select the respective sporting event and carefully prepare your bet through a thorough analysis of statistics and news. In the next step, you probe the market and find the most lucrative rate with a provider of your choice. If you do not have a betting account there, you can usually take an attractive new customer bonus with you through your registration.
Maximize profits with odds boosts
Many bookmakers offer so-called odds boosts. The odds are raised artificially , mostly for particularly popular events, and are therefore particularly lucrative. Since the values called are no longer related to the real probability of occurrence, the possible betting stakes are generally limited to a maximum of five euros. Betting sites use such promotions primarily to win new customers. Existing customers can also regularly benefit from bookmakers like 888sport or betway.
Please note that the profits made from the increased odds are generally tied to certain wagering requirements that must be met before a possible payout. Nevertheless, there is a good opportunity here to earn decent additional profits with a comparatively low stake. By the way: Betbubbles.com keeps you informed about the best odds boosts currently available .
Surebets – a useful odds trick in sports betting?
Surefire tips are every sports betting fan’s dream. In this context, the concept of surebets has haunted the Internet for years. But what does it actually mean? Translated, surebets simply means “safe betting“ and in fact a loss is impossible. A fictional basketball match is intended to illustrate this. First you have to find two bookmakers who rate the outcome of the game extremely differently and therefore offer very different odds. Now you bet on both bookies for different results (eg victory team A and victory team B). The amounts wagered must be distributed in such a way that ultimately there is always a profit.
However, the fact is that such surebets are extremely rare to find in practice . And even if you come across appropriate quotas, the profits made from them are usually quite modest. The bottom line is therefore definitely not worth the effort. Our tip: Invest this time in the search for value bets.