Of course, when it comes to sports betting, emotions often play a role and you rely on a team because you care about them or because you are connected to them in some other way. Such bets are generally less rational and, unfortunately, are rarely lucrative. The profit is limited in the rules and you can be on the losing side again on the next matchday. In order to benefit permanently and consistently from sports betting, you should have a good plan and place your bet without emotion and rationally, but with reason and logic. One of the most successful methods that have established themselves in sports betting is the so-called value bet.
The Valuebet is one of the most popular and lucrative ways to get a permanent profit from sports betting. You can search for value bets in various betting markets. Be it the Bundesliga , the English Premier League or, of course, international matches . Of course, the search is not tied to your sport. Regardless of whether it’s football, tennis or horse betting, you can find a value bet. In the following article we explain what value bets are, how you recognize them, how you calculate them and how you can best benefit from them. We also give you tips for analysis and introduce you to the top bookmakers on the betting market for value bets .
How do the odds for a value bet come about?
A value bet is simply formulated as an outlier for a bookmaker. In order to understand more precisely how a odds outlier comes about, you have to know how the odds are actually calculated by the bookmakers. A bookmaker offers fixed odds on a win, a draw or a loss on a sporting event. The odds are converted to the probability of how likely it is that one of the events will actually occur. With a 1.00 odds, the expected event will occur 100%. With a 2.00 odds, the event will occur 50%.
All reputable bookmakers have enough methods and enough statistics to calculate their odds as best as possible. Of course, years of experience also play a major role in correctly assessing upcoming duels or correctly interpreting situations. The best way to explain how odds come about is with the classic 3-way bet, in which only the three results Team 1, Tie or Team 2 occur.
The bookmaker evaluates – with all the information available to him – the likelihood that Team 1 or Team 2 will win and what the likelihood of a tie in the game is. We assume the following values:
- Win team 1: 61%
- Draw: 26%
- Team 2 victory: 13%
If you add up all the probabilities of the individual events, you come to 100 percent, since one of the three events will definitely occur. The “fair” odds (without bookmaker margin) result from the probabilities. With “fair” odds, the bookmaker would pay out all the losers’ money from the game to the winners. This calculation is of course not realistic, since bookmakers also have fixed costs and have to pay their employees and offices. Therefore, a small part of the loser’s stake is not distributed to the winners, but remains with the bookmaker. The following “fair” odds result from the above percentages for a win or a draw:
- Team 1: 1.64 odds
- Draw: 3.85 odds
- Win team 2: 7.69 odds
In order to make a profit on bets, the bookmaker subtracts a small percentage from the “fair” odds, which then result in the “real” odds. The difference between the “fair” and “real” odds is called the bookmaker’s margin and is the bookmaker’s profit. To get the “real” odds, the “fair” odds are multiplied by a number> 1. This number is also called the quota key. If you multiply the “fair” odds by 0.9, the bookmaker has a odds key of 90%. He would then pay 90% of the bets of the tipsters again and keep 10% of the bets as a profit. As a rule, all reputable bookmakers have a quota key that is over 90%. The odds that the bookmaker actually offers the tipster are as follows:
- Team 1: 1,476 odds
- Draw: 3,465 odds
- Team 2 victory: 6,921 odds
By adjusting the odds through the bookmaker’s margin, he easily corrects the occurrence of the likelihood of events in his favor. These final odds must always be up-to-date by the bookmaker and, above all, must be calculated cleanly and without errors. A gross misjudgment or an incorrect calculation of the probability of the occurrence of the event can lead to severe losses for the betting site. This is where the tipster comes in with his own specialist knowledge, who searches the individual odds of bookmakers for so-called value bets.
How do I recognize a value bet calculation?
As we learned, the odd indicates the probability of an event occurring. The tip of the tipster is to find odds for games or races which, in his opinion and in his specialist knowledge, have been wrongly assessed or calculated by the bookmaker. The following example: The bookmaker gives the following odds for a classic 3-way bet:
- Team 1: 2.25
- Draw: 3.50
- Team 2: 2.60
With the odds, the bookmaker says that both teams will be victorious in less than 50% of the cases. Now the tipster has very well informed and researched and comes to a different result and thus a different assessment than the bookmaker. The tipster has decided that Team 1 will be the winner in 50% of the cases. The quota for this would be 2.00. He believes a draw is 20% and Team 2 would win 30% of the time. Based on the assumption, we now calculate the odds value.
Calculation of the value bet – odds value
Next you have to calculate the odds value. The calculation for this is as follows:
Odds value = (odds from bookmaker * own probability in% / 100)
in our case the calculation would look like this:
- (2.25 * 50%) / 100 = 1.125
If the value of the result is over 1, then it is a value bet, if the value is below 1, then it is not a worthwhile bet. If the value is below 1, so you shouldn’t place a bet, if the value is above, then it could have been a good tip, which surely not everyone has on the screen. The prerequisite for this, however, is that you have researched very well yourself and thus can better estimate than the bookmaker who will win.
What factors can I use in my own analysis
For your own analysis and assessment of how a game will turn out, you have to be very knowledgeable. All bookmakers have years of experience and have countless methods and possibilities to calculate the probabilities. In addition, they have access to countless statistics and data records in order to make the most precise statements possible. However, one should not forget that the big bookmakers are adding hundreds of new betting offers and markets every day. It is impossible to calculate all odds 100% correctly. In addition, events can occur spontaneously that the bookmaker does not manage to calculate into his quota so quickly. If, for example, a key player injures himself spontaneously, the bookmaker will surely need something until the failure is also reflected in his odds.
On the other hand, there are also enough betting enthusiasts who deal with their favorite team 24/7 and are thus closer to the action than a bookmaker. In addition, they are often fans of their club for decades and know every player by heart. In addition, they do not have to calculate 30 sports with various betting markets like the bookmaker, but can concentrate on their specialty or their favorite team. But what exactly should you take into account when trying to calculate the probability of a win or a loss?
Trend performance – analysis of the last five games
Obviously the analysis of the last five games may be a little short-sighted. However, you get a very good impression of the general condition of the team and can see whether they are on a winning streak or not. Of course, it is also very important to take into account the opponents they played against and in what condition they were in when performing trend performance.
How strong is the squad in general and who can play from the squad at all and is fit? If your absolute goalkeeper has been injured shortly before the game or your key player from midfield cannot emerge, then this must be taken into account. Maybe there is also a player back on the pitch who is not yet 100 percent fit, but is extremely important for morale and is a leading player and who despite his injury represents an absolute added value on the pitch.
The line-up is a very interesting aspect because the line-up is usually only published shortly before the game and is absolutely crucial for the game. However, since most bookmakers usually calculate and publish their odds for the game well in advance, this important information is not available to them at the time. There, the tipster has an enormous advantage over the bookmaker, since he has the option to place his bet only after the announcement of the lineup or to see whether, in his opinion, with the knowledge of the game lineup, it is a value bet.
The direct comparison of the two teams must always be taken into account. Even if the last encounters may have been a while ago, you should always find out whether a team is superior and dominated for years. If there has been a duel between the two teams several times, the direct comparison is very representative and should definitely be used for the calculation.
Derbies are always worth a special rating. Experience has shown that derbies are always hot and demand more from the players on both sides. The teams are usually more motivated and daring than in “normal” duels. The will to defeat the archenemy is nowhere greater than with derbies and therefore these encounters are always under special observation. There have been surprises one or two times when the fighting spirit of the apparently weaker team is suddenly bigger than expected and plays the opponent to the ground.
The goal statistics should also be used as an evaluation of the bet. You should take a close look at the goal difference, and you should also consider how often goals have been scored in the last few games and who scored in the last games. Perhaps in the last few games only the full-backs have been able to score according to a standard and the center forward has been without a goal for five games. That would be an indicator that the storm was rather weak and the goals scored were more or less happy. This would make the prospects of victory rather small.
Home balance – away balance
The point is a classic when evaluating sports betting and should not be missing in any case. The statistics of the home and away balance is always a very good factor to assess the current strength and also allows a reliable forecast for the outcome of future games. A team is usually always stronger at home than abroad.
How can I best benefit from a value bet?
Of course, you should have a good understanding of the matter and be sure of the probability that the individual teams will win. The individual bookmakers, of course, also have professionals who have the most modern statistics and methods to calculate the odds. Therefore, you should be sure if you want to measure yourself against the big bookmakers. But with the number of odds that a bookmaker such as bet365 puts online every day, mistakes sometimes occur or some important information is overlooked or not taken into account. This is where you can benefit as a tipster if you really find an outlier.
In addition, of course, as an individual you have much more time to deal with a team or a single league than the bookmakers. In contrast, you have to cover dozens of betting markets and evaluate and calculate hundreds of odds daily – of course, mistakes also happen there. You also have to be aware that even if you have found a value bet, it does not have to be that this event also has to happen. Therefore, value bets can be bets that the bookmaker misjudged, but you don’t have to win automatically. You have to clearly understand that these are two different pairs of shoes. However, if you win a value bet, you can count on a rich and, above all, increased profit than it should have been.